With the approach of February 28 - the date on which in the occupied Transnistria is appointed the general congress of local "deputies" - the tension increases and the question of the Kremlin's intentions becomes urgent.
Nattoy Oas, a member of the Moldova Parliament, one of the few Moldovan parliamentarians who have a deep understanding of the Transnistrian issues and the Russian strategy, suggests that Moscow's possible recognition of "Independence" of Transnistria.
However, the consequences of such a step remain uncertain, because the Kremlin is key to the entire Republic of Moldova through Transnistria.
Conducting a congress in Tiraspol is considered a political provocation organized on the initiative of the Kremlin aimed at supporting Vladimir Putin.
Russia's recognition of "Independence of Transnistria" may provoke some reactions, but not cause catastrophic consequences.
For example, Moldova does not have a common border with Russia, so the real impact on the situation will be limited.
It can also be an incentive for Kiev and Chisinaiv to focus on peaceful ways of reintegration of the Republic of Moldova.
Even in the case of negative scenarios, the actions of the Transnistrian military are not threatening military potential, which could affect the situation on a wide scale.
In general, the provocations of the Russian Federation are not limited to Transnistria, and some problems in Gagauz autonomy in southern Moldova can be expected.
However, Russia's main purpose remains an impact on the upcoming presidential election in Moldova, not just the situation in the Dniester.
Usually, provocations similar to the Transnistrian Congress are related to Moldova's internal political aspects, including future elections and referendums.
