The Russian military command continues to rely on existing units, deployed in the international border, and easily accessible forces in the rear to resist the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Armed Forces) in the Kursk region. However, according to the US Institute for War Study (ISW), the Russian military faces challenges that can significantly affect their ability to hold positions.
Currently, Russia does not want to transfer its forces from the East of Ukraine, as it can lead to a breakdown of the Russian offensive on this area of the front. This strategic decision is aimed at avoiding the weakening of positions in important areas, but leaves Russian troops in the Kursk region in a vulnerable state.
At the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, the defense was tried to provide Russian conscripts, FSB border guards, as well as Chechen special forces from Akhmat units operating under the command of the Ministry of Defense of Russia. However, these forces were insufficiently prepared to restrain the Ukrainian offensive, and soon reserves began to be thrown to the region.
The Russian military command was forced to quickly transfer additional units, including special forces, the forces of special operations (SCO), as well as units of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic (AK DNR) and former Wagner fighters. All these forces were aimed at protecting the Kursk region and restraining the further promotion of the Armed Forces.
ISW analysts suggest that Russia can start switching more experienced and better units from the east and south of Ukraine to the Kursk region. However, the arrival of such parts to the region will take time to enable Ukraine to expand its presence in the region.
Additional attention is attracted by information from one of the Russian warships, which states that parts of the 44th Army Corps of the Northern Army Army Army are operating in the Rylsk region. This may indicate that the Russian military command evaluates the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region as a significant threat that requires immediate response.
Ukrainian troops reportedly continue to successfully move deep into the Kursk region, causing serious losses to the Russian units. The secretary of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Roman Kostenko noted that the Ukrainian military operate professionally and effectively.
According to The Washington Post, the Ukrainian breakthrough in the Kursk region has become one of the most serious challenges for Russia since the Wagner Rebellion. If Russian troops continue to step at the same speed as on other fronts, they may need about a year to restore lost territories.
