Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon has recently made a sensational statement that the hot phase of war in Ukraine may end on December 30, 2024. He is convinced that this day will take place a "historical meeting" that will put a point in the conflict. However, are there any real grounds for such an optimistic forecast? Is there a chance for a quick cessation of hostilities?
In his speech on December 29, Gordon noted that there is now a significant decrease in military attacks in Ukraine - lack of air anxiety, missile attacks and even less drones. He suggested that this could indicate preparation for peaceful settlement, and that Putin, allegedly under the pressure of Washington, decided not to make massive missile strikes before the New Year in order not to aggravate the situation in Ukraine. However, these optimistic statements are not shared by all experts. Ivan Stupak, a former SBU employee and military analyst, doubts the reality of such a scenario. "I have not seen any reason to assume that the war would end in the near future," he said. Stupak indicates that even if Russia has reduced the number of attacks, active fighting continues at the front, in particular in the area of Kyiv region and south of the capital, as well as regular artillery shelling occurs. Dmitry Snegirev, a military analyst, believes that the end of the war is unlikely in the near future. According to him, Russia has not yet fulfilled its main goals, in particular, it has not achieved control over the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and therefore Putin cannot declare peace without receiving at least conditional victories.
Dmitry Gordon claims that on December 30 there will be a "historical meeting" that will complete the hot phase of the war. He also notes that the United States plays a special role in these negotiations, and even mentions the movement of a plane owned by Putin's administration, which has made several flights between Moscow, New York and Washington. However, Ivan Stupak and Dmitry Snegirev believe that such a meeting is unlikely to happen, and the very fact of trips of Russian high -ranking officials to the United States is not proof of peace talks. Stupak also draws attention to the fact that the probable winner in the future elections in the United States - Donald Trump - has not yet joined. Therefore, even if the meeting and happens, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the peaceful process. Despite some optimistic forecasts, most experts believe that the active phase of war will continue in 2025. Russia has not yet achieved the main goals, and in Ukraine there is stable support for international partners, which allows to resist aggression. The armistice or termination of hostilities will probably require significant political changes both in Ukraine and in Russia, as well as the recognition of their defeats by the parties.
Although there are no positive signals, such as reducing attacks, that there are no real preconditions for the end of the war today. According to analysts, the war will not end without serious political changes, and even if negotiations are started, it is unlikely to happen in the near future.
