According to journalist and immigration lawyer Andy Semotyuk, if Russian President Vladimir Putin wins the war in Ukraine, more than 20 million Ukrainians could flee to the West. Such forecasts were expressed in a column for Forbes magazine on February 19.
The author of the article considers that since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, about 6 million people have left the country, and 8 million have become forced migrants. With such large-scale migration, the costs of Western countries for Ukrainian refugees may exceed 1 trillion dollars per year.
Even if the number of people leaving is only 3-4 million, it will be a significant challenge for the countries that will receive Ukrainian refugees.
The article also notes that a new long-term Cold War with Russia, involving the US, could cost $4 trillion or more over 10 years.
The magazine emphasizes that the situation is reminiscent of the events before the Second World War, especially with the participation of the leader of Nazi Germany, Adolf Hitler. According to the author, leaving Ukraine without aid is a "terrible mistake" that could lead to a major tragedy similar to that of World War II, when more than 50 million people died.
The author believes that if Putin wins in Ukraine, it may lead to aggression against the Baltic states and Poland. This will push the world into a war in which American soldiers can participate.
