Blogger Yuri Bogdanov has bad and good news for Ukrainians. Bad - that Ukraine does not have and cannot be "plan B" without the help of the event. It is good that no one will leave us and help will.
I have two news for you. One is very good. One is very bad.
He read - listened to the brilliant ideas about "Plan B for Ukraine" if "the event will throw us". And that we can produce all weapons ourselves and in general, everything is enough for us, if you do everything right. So this is both news.
Let's start with very bad. We do not have and can not be any plan B.
If partners stop helping us with money and weapons - we are waffles. Sooner or later. Quickly or slowly. If there is no epic "black swan" in Russia.
No, we have no internal strength that could withstand such a war more than a couple of quarters without external assistance. Loans or donati.
During the First World War, even France and Britain, two colonial empires, No. 3 and # 4 of the world's economy at that time, did not export the First World War without American (and a little Japanese) loans and supply of resources from colonies. And the further the war went, the dependence on loans and supplies grew, not the other way around.
In 1918, France spent 4.5 times more money on war than she was able to make money, and was actually bankrupt. France, shaking. Not Ukraine. France. Colonial empire. And the "banker of Europe" before the war.
Kaiser's Germany, No. 2 of the world's economies, No. 1 by military power as soon as she was in isolation (she was banally to borrow or take resources), gradually exhausted her potential and lost.
Our dear community sincerely considers that Ukraine could pay for the war herself if she wanted. Whether to produce massively weapons, more complex than drones and already mastered equipment, but the truth is that we have not had the industrial potential that was in Soviet times. Such cases. And there is no demography. Such cases 2.0. No, there will be no economic miracle during the war in our territory, because it never happened.
This does not mean that we cannot do more than we do now. We can and must. But the truth is that without external nutrition with money (no, no Ukrainian economic rear is unable to export the war) and other resources - we are doomed. Therefore, those people who demand from the authorities “plan B” or know that they require unrealistic or do not understand. Both conclusions talk about them badly.
Yes, the bad news is that our fate depends not only on us. Unfortunately.
Now very good news.
No, no one will quit and will or pay and supply us. Or to fight tomorrow itself as an alternative. In Europe, the awareness of this comes faster than in America. Which is now in any existential intersection. But this year we will have help this year.
And so we will have at least a year - more precisely we, Europe, the USA, Japan, Korea, etc. - to either cause Russia to be decisive, or to recalibrate our capabilities and expectations.
There is another good news. In Russia, too, everything is not good. But this is the topic of another conversation.
And what to do? To fight, to work. If not in the Armed Forces, then for the Armed Forces. You know this without me. It is difficult and unpleasant to have a weakly predictable future, but we still have no different choice than holding up and rowing. Well, if we want to live and that our children live in our country, not in emigration or in occupation.
