The expert assessed the budget declaration of Ukraine until 2027

Vyacheslav Cherkashin, an expert in the field of tax and customs policy, considered the budget declaration of Ukraine for the period up to 2027. According to him, the main feature of the document is the excessive rigidity of fiscal policy, which, along with the war, can significantly influence the pace of economic recovery and standard of life of Ukrainians.

The main aspects of the 2025-2027 budget

1. Tax burden: it is expected that in 2025 the tax burden will increase significantly - the increase in budget revenues will be 36.6% compared to the current year, which is equivalent to UAH 646.5 billion. The planned receipt from new tax measures for three years will reach about UAH 340 billion annually, and the share of tax revenues in GDP will increase by 3.1%.
2. Macroeconomic situation: The level of real economic growth in 2025 is predicted at the level of only 2.7% of GDP. It is estimated that in three years the economy will restore less than half of the loss from falling in 2022 (28.8%), which indicates a very slow rate of recovery.
3. State budget deficit: It is predicted that the budget deficit in 2025 will reach 18.2% of GDP. From 2025 to 2027, there is a significant reduction in deficiency from 20.6% to 6.7% of GDP, which can be difficult to achieve a task and will require a significant increase in tax burden.
4. Debt Policy: The Government plans to reduce public debt to 90% of GDP by 2027. This provides for active raising funds through domestic government bonds (T -bills), which is caused by the need to significantly reduce debt.
5. Hryvnia exchange rate: the hryvnia forecast for 2025 is 45 UAH/USD, for 2026 - 46.5 UAH/USD, and for 2027 - 46.4 UAH/USD. The forecasting of a stable exchange rate is controversial, taking into account current economic conditions.
6. Military action: The main scenario stipulates that active fighting will continue throughout 2025, which will also affect the economic situation.
7. Tax Policy: The Government does not plan to introduce new tax and administrative measures that can adversely affect the tax base. The focus will focus on the implementation of the National Revenue Strategy by 2030, in particular on the abolition of tax benefits and strengthening control over tax evasion.
8. Customs Policy: Plans for the future provide for the strengthening of anti -corruption measures and the development of international customs cooperation. However, the fears remain about the real restart of the supervisory authorities.
9. Social standards: social standards for the next three years will be frozen, which can lead to a decrease in purchasing power and welfare of the most vulnerable sections of the population.
10. Minimum wages: in 2025-2027, the minimum wage will remain at 8000 UAH.
11. Infrastructure: despite the high level of corruption, the financing of road projects will increase: in 2025 - UAH 43.8 billion, in 2026 and 2027 - 124 and UAH 233.8 billion, respectively.

Fiscal policy, envisaged by the budget declaration for 2025-2027, can be the main reason for the poor rates of economic recovery. Along with military efforts, this policy is likely to reduce living standards and suppression of aggregate demand. Obviously, urgent problems require viewing and adaptation to achieve more positive results.