According to the results of the next survey of the enterprises of Ukraine conducted by the National Bank, the index of expectations of business activity in October decreased below the equilibrium level (up to 49.6 compared to 50.1 in September). The main factors in influencing the deterioration of business expectations were the preservation of significant security risks, the destruction of production capacity of individual enterprises, logistical restrictions of exporters, narrowing of investment demand, restoration of fuel prices, as well as significant shortage of qualified personnel.
In particular, the respondents of the industry for the second month in a row do not predict changes in their business activity (the index is stored at the level of 50), but are positively attuned to the volumes of manufactured products, new orders for products, as well as in stocks of raw materials. Also, as a result of the seasonal reduction of economic activity, construction enterprises generally assessed the results of their activities (the index decreased to 44.8 out of 50.6), in particular, due to the expectation of reducing the availability of contractors and increasing purchase prices. Therefore, the managers of construction enterprises predict the reduction of the total number of employees.
Similar results of survey of industry enterprises conducted by the State Statistics Committee. Thus, in October 2023, an indicator of business confidence in industry decreased compared to September 2023 by 2.2 pp. and was a minus 9.1%, in the processing industry this figure decreased compared to the previous month by 2 pp. and was minus 10.4%. Industrial enterprises noted the security of orders, as in September - on average for four months of work, and the level of production capacity - on average by 62.9%.
In October, the service companies of the service sector in October have negatively evaluated the results of their activities in view of the further rise in fuel, logistics and low demand (the index was 47.2 compared to 47.9 in September). Respondents in this sector have maintained negative expectations about the volume of new orders, volumes of services in the process of execution, and, unlike the previous month, are expected to reduce the amount of services provided.
Instead, trade companies remain the most optimistic among other FEAs regarding the results of their activities due to persistent domestic demand, slowing inflation and sufficient supply of goods. It is expected to increase the turnover and the volume of purchase of goods for sale. However, even in this segment, the enterprise is pessimistic about the total number of employees.
As of early November, more than 67 million tons of new crops were ground in Ukraine, including cereals - 47 million 184.1 thousand tons, oil - 19, 958 thousand tons. Crying of grain and legumes was carried out on an area of 9.3 million hectares at a yield of 50.6 c/ha, in particular wheat was threshed 4 694.5 thousand hectares (yield - 47.7 c/ha), ground 22.4 million tons; corn - 4.4 million tons; corn - 4.5 thousand tons; corn - 4.5 thousand tons. tons; corn was threshed 2 420.1 thousand hectares (yield - 70.8 c/ha), feasible 17.1 million tons; Barley was threshed 1 504.5 thousand hectares (yield - 39.2 c/ha), grinding 5.9 million tons. At the same time, according to the results of the State Statistics Service, agricultural enterprises noted the slowdown in the growth of production volumes. Among the aggravating production of factors was a decrease in prices for agricultural products and insufficient demand.
Reduction of safety risks for business should be facilitated by the implementation of the EBRD of a pilot project of insurance from military risks in Ukraine, which has recently been joined by the United Kingdom. The relevant intention statement was signed between the UK government and the EBRD on October 31, 2023. The EBRD project envisages the creation of a new fund that promotes the development of the international reinsurance and insurance market for property and trade risks, including insurance of goods on the road or in warehouses.
The budget sphere
for the operational information of the Ministry of Finance for January-October 2023 was received by the general fund of the state budget UAH 1414.3 billion. Among the payments, which are controlled by tax and customs authorities, the following main revenues were obtained: UAH 299.7 billion - value added tax from goods imported into the customs territory of Ukraine; UAH 169.3 billion - value added tax from produced goods in Ukraine, of which 280.8 billion was harvested, UAH 111.6 billion was reimbursed; UAH 140.0 billion - personal income tax and military levy; 108.7 billion UAH - corporate income tax; UAH 88.1 billion - excise tax; 48.5 billion UAH - rent for the use of subsoil; UAH 25.4 billion - import and export duty. At the same time, the execution of income painting by the State Tax Service was 102.6% (+14.8 billion UAH), the State Customs Service-97.3% (-9.0 billion UAH).
The part of the state budget in the Janarev-Obtyabrean Budget became the consistent in the state, a person in the view of the international assistance (Grant)-UAH 404.9 billion. A large donor of a grant exposure in Yanvar-Obtyabre 2023 were the United States (UAH 398.5 billion). Also, on the vibrant basis, Ukraine has received viangration from Germany, Ispanyi, Finlandia, Irland, Switzaria, Belgia, Iland, with a whole volume of up to 6.4 billion hryvnias. Denezhnye media were sent to the state of Ukraine through the Celevoy Fund of the World Bank within the framework of the PEACE in Ukraine project.
In the phell, on the respects of the January-Oktabrya 2023, in the general and special funds of the state budget, 2 206.0 billion UAH, gunshots and second payments were received. In the same time, the cash registers of the state budget for the Yanvariv-Oktyabr 2023, they set up 3 113.9 billion UAH, in the volume of the number of a general fund-2 346.0 billion UAH, or 95.1% from the hollow female. As a result, for ten months 2023, the state budget was submitted with a deficit in Summe 900.0 billion UAH, in volume, the number of a common fund-in Summme 923.1 billion UAH against the planned plant of a generalized fund for the Yanvari, hryvnia.
The actual state waste in the general fund of the state budget for Yanvar - Oktyabr 2023 was 1 341.4 billion UAH, or 86.3% of the periode planted for this. This is the value of the OVGZ on the financial budget of the state budget, UAH 452.0 billion was attached, in the number in the foreign currency UAH 141.5 billion. ($ 3,098.3 million and $ 709.3 million). 889.4 billion UAH received from the existence of existence. (or $ 24.3 billion).
Attached for the uniqueness of the OVGZ for Yanvar - Oktyabr 2023 allowed to cover the need in the midst, which is not possible for the desolation of the payments on the repayment of the OVGZ. In the whole, payments for the repayment of the State Dolg for Yanvar - Oktyabr 2023, were UAH 383.0 billion (97.5 % plan), payments for servicing - UAH 187.5 billion (100.0 % of the plan).
Currency rates
of the dead growth, as well as the forecast of the external currency on the interbankovskaya Rynke in the sides of the Cleenov Bankov on the marked unnecessary indigenous seat of pure resistance on the foreign currency. A consonant deficit was to cover the intervention of a national bank, the pure value of which was a margin of Neslai was $ 563 million. The Everbankovsky hryvnia exchange rate was struck by a need of 1.0%.
In the same time, the deficit of the fluid operating, which for 9 monsatics 2023, made $ 5.5 billion in USD (on the debt with a profititic $ 7.9 billion currency. Thus, the detachable balance of goods and service for the January-Sentabr reached $ 28 billion. When this traditional channels are adapted by foreign currency on the flow of the back, they will be reduced: enrollment in Ukraine on payment for 9 MPs. 2023 was estimated $ 9.1 billion (9,2022 - 9.6 billion US dollars), Transferi (pre -permanent in the sector of general administration) made $ 18.6 billion (US $ 922) - 2022).
The compliance of direct foreign investment in Ukraine in Sentyabre was $ 126 million. billion of US dollars from the beginning of the year). ). The volume of portfolio investor in Ukraine for 9 masses. 2023 Socratized on $ 331, which was heard the forces of all the loss of shaded investors in the state -owned bundles, as well as the banks and the corporate sector. The growth of the volume currency of the banks in Sentyabre has saved up to $ 775 million ($ 8.1 billion.
Financial sector
according to the Danny National Bank, the showers of the adequacy of the bank of the banking system of Ukraine will be rewarded as high. According to October 1, 2023, the adequacy of the regulatory dripping of Ukraine was 25%, the main one - 14.8%, which is painful in the two -folding mining regulatory requirements of the National Bank. Save the high capitalization to form the ratio of the Financial results of banks - for 8 months 2023 Pure arrival of the Bankovkoy system gave up 95 billion hryvnias (profitability of the cap - 64.7%).
The volume of the Bankovsky Sector's viciousness (in the format of the corschets and deposit certificates of the NBU) is sown on the earlier peritoneum of UAH 680 billion, in the volume number of 480 billion UAH - in the NBU deposit. The main factor of maintaining the vocabulary of the Bankovskaya Lykvkoyevilism will release the rashes on a single treasury of the government, then as an interventions of a national system for selling a foreign currency. The liking of the vibrantness is displaced by the low sproz of banks on the loans of refinance, the rest of the detachable on which socratized to the lesson of the member 2.5 billion hryvnias, and the maintenance of 163
In the speeches of the program "Available loans 5-7-9%" on the past, 589 lenders on the total banks were outlined in the total amount of UAH 2.4 billion, from them, half of them-state-owned banks. General skeleton of dedicated creditings from the beginning of large -scale soldiers on the territories of Ukraine on the program, the program was given 40.5, in the total amount of 158 billion hryvnias. Reading the priority of the Cells of the Voenny time, the fate of the loans was expelled by banks in the plot of the agricultural land and anti -eenny pits.
