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The attacks heighten fears of a wider war in the Middle East and the US

The murder of a high -ranking leader Hamas in Lebanon and the mysterious double explosions in Iran exacerbate concerns about the regional war that can attract the United States.

American, Israeli and Lebanon officials insist that few sides want the War of Israel in Gaza to become a wider conflict that will reach the Middle East.

But the murder of Leader Hamas in Lebanon on Tuesday and the death of dozens of people during the mysterious double explosions in Iran threatened to bring the Middle East closer - and the United States - to the boundary of the regional war, which Baiden administration tried to prevent Hamas on Deadly on October 7.

Only a few hours after the explosion in Iran, the United States and 12 of their allies released a written warning to another Rivchen Group in the region, the Yemeni Hussites, who almost daily struck missile, unmanned and sea blows on commercial vessels.

So far, the United States is refrain from revenge against the Hussites in Yemen, largely because they do not want to undermine the fragile truce during the Civil War in Yemen.

But now Biden officials signal that their patience is over.
"Let our message be clear: we call for the immediate termination of these illegal attacks and the release of illegally detained ships and crews," the White House representatives, published on Wednesday, said in a day after the Maersk navigable giant  .
"Hut", "the statement reads," they are responsible for the consequences if they continue to threaten the lives of people, the global economy and the free movement of trade in the critical waterways of the region. "
The warnings, which were also signed by the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Japan, Singapore and the Netherlands, did not contain threats of military blows. On the weekend of the US Navy, three boats of Hussites were sank, killing all the crew members when they fired on American helicopters who went to the rescue of Maersk.
On Monday, Iran's Navy announced the deployment of flotilla of warships on a waterway. On the same day, Iran's Foreign Minister Hosin Amir-Abdollachian expressed his gratitude to the official representative of Husi, who visited Tehran, with the support of the Hamas group, Irna news agency said.

A high -ranking Iranian official said that sending warships that join the Iranian intelligence ship, which was already in the region, aimed to signal that Iran supports Hussites and raise rates. But the official said that Iran did not plan to confront the US Navy ships on a waterway.

President Biden said he wanted to avoid direct military attacks on Hussites to avoid escalation of the Middle East conflict.

"We are still extremely concerned about the risk of conflict to other fronts," Matthew Miller spokesman said on Wednesday.

Hezbolla, a mighty Lebanese combat group, promised that the murder of Saleh al-Aruri, leader Hamas on Tuesday in Beirut's suburbs, would not remain unanswered. Hamas's key ally, Hizbalan actually controls the southern suburbs of Beirut, where the explosion occurred, and for months leads an escalation of collisions with the Israeli forces.

The circumstances around the explosions near the Memorial for the former Iranian General Cassim Suleimani in Kerman, Iran, were more vague. While Iran hastened to blame Israel, European and American officials said that the Israelis had been struck: most of their actions against Iran were purposeful, from the elimination of the Chief Architect of the Iranian Nuclear Program to blasting a specific nuclear weapon.

Three high -ranking US officials and one high -ranking European official said on Wednesday that the Islamic State or another terrorist group is a possible executor. Although there are some intelligence data that indicate the involvement of the Islamic state in the attack, officials have warned that the assessment is preliminary and no final conclusions have been made.
"It is possible that one of the Israeli proxy groups allowed the attack to get out of control," said Ray Takyh on Wednesday, a senior researcher at the International Relations Council, who often writes about Iran.
Ayatola Ali Hamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, made a statement on Wednesday, which he accused of attacking the "evil and criminal enemies" of the nation, but did not name any group or country. Mr. Hamenei promised that Iran's enemies should know that "this tragedy will have a strong answer."
Two people familiar with internal discussions in Iran said that Ayatol ordered the Iranian military command to show "strategic patience" and avoid involving Iran in direct military confrontation with the United States.
Several US officials have said it was too early to predict whether there was a wider war. According to officials, Israel would not strike Mr. Al-Aruri if he had not believed that they would be able to do so without escalation of a conflict on the border with Lebanon. But given that the explosions, whatever their cause, happened so quickly after the murder, there was almost no doubt that in the United States and Europe they began to think again about the risk of conflict.

Israeli officials did not comment on whether their forces were aiming at Mr. Al-Aruri, but Lebanese and American officials attributed the attack of Israel.

After the strike, Baiden's officials developed plans to activate diplomatic efforts with officials in Lebanon in the context of effort to put pressure on Hezbolla so that she does not intensify the conflict. State Secretary Atony J. Blinken will be expected to go to the Middle East, where the restraint of potential escalation will be one of his main purposes.

"The likelihood of a regional war in the Middle East increases from 15 percent to 30 percent," said Admiral James Stavidis, a former NATO commander. "Still relatively low but higher than before, and of course, uncomfortable."

But representatives of Biden administration and the Middle East analysts noted that although Hezbolla and Iran entered clashes and proxy against Israel, they do not necessarily seek to expand the conflict.

"Throughout the devastation in Hezbolla Gas, she claimed that they would act restricted" to tie part of the Israeli forces near Lebanon, said Paul Salem, President of the Middle East Institute, in an interview. "It was absolutely clear that they did not join the fight directly."
He and other analysts said that although Iran helped to plan and organize some attacks that occur in the Middle East, including Hussites missile attacks on navigation in the Red Sea, he did not oppose directly against the United States or Israel.
Biden and his main assistants after the October 7 Terrouts sought to restrain the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza sector. Pentagon sent two aircraft carriers and doubled the number of US military aircraft to the Middle East to restrain Iran and his assistants in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq from the War expanding. Now this strategy wears out. This week, Pentagon said that one of these groups of aircraft carriers, led by Gerald R. Ford, leaves the area.
Iran's armed units supported 118 times attacked by US troops stationed in Iraq and Syria to fulfill tasks for combating terrorism, after the terrorist attacks on October 7, the last time on Monday. Several US military personnel were injured during strikes, at least one in critical condition, which prompted the Pentagon five times to response to the groups.

In recent weeks, Baiden's administration has declassified intelligence data, which indicated that Iranian militarized groups coordinated the attacks of Hussites, providing purposeful information about a commercial vessel passing a water and Suez channel. Israel is highly dependent on marine transport in the Red Sea.

In response to attacks, the United States created a multinational naval group to protect commercial ships both in the Red Sea and in the Gulf.

Pentagon officials have developed detailed plans for rocket launchers and drone bases in Yemen, as well as some objects where there seems to be high -speed boats that were used to attack Maersk container. But there is anxiety that such blows will play in favor of Iran's strategy aimed at being trampled on many fronts.

But the most serious threat to containing the conflict in Gaza emerged on Tuesday after the murder of Al-Aruri .

"The loss of someone who is so closely involved in tactical operations and in strategic diplomacy is a serious failure for Hamas," Hanin Gaddar and Matthew Levitt wrote in the analysis for the Washington Institute of Middle East Policy. "What else should be seen is how the allies of the group, especially Hezbolla, will respond to the attack."
Western leaders tried to soften the tensions that grew rapidly. French President Emmanuel Macron declared shortly after the strike that "it is important to avoid any escalation, especially in Lebanon."
During a telephone conversation with Benny Ganz, the opponent of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyhah, who joined the country's unity during the war, Macron said that "France will continue to transmit these messages to all players who are directly or indirectly involved in the region. ”, - said the call from the President of France.

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