China in the future supports Taiwan's threats, emphasizing his willingness to use the force to "victory" over his independence, and quickly responds to the American reaction. US President Joe Biden said US troops can be placed in Taiwan in the event of China's invasion. What are the consequences of such statements and is there a new Great War?
The expert on civil society and conflict in Eurasia Vitaliy Kulik believes that in China's recent speeches, the known phrase about the last Chinese warning should be remembered. He emphasizes that increasing the tension between Taiwan and China is not new, but now there is a growing Beijing activity, which includes increasing military presence and conducting military exercises. Kulik notes that China demonstrates its unpreparedness to accept the world order that the event proposes and tries to review the rules of the game.
The expert agrees that the threats have increased significantly, but at the same time sees some restrictions that restrain China from sudden steps. He believes that it is now about temporary escalation aimed at raising rates and gaining benefits in future negotiations on the world order. Kulik also points to China's efforts to increase influence in the Silk Road countries and emphasizes that they heat political tension around Taiwan.
Regarding the possibility of war, the expert believes that both sides are more interested in political dividends than in conflict. He considers the possibility of dialogue between China and the US as a way to compromise, but notes that China can see weakness in the West and try to take advantage of it.
Igor Tyshkevich, an international policy expert, notes that Taiwan's question is difficult because of his status. He sees the risks and opportunities for both parties in different scenarios, but believes that the war is now unlikely. It points to the political circumstances in Taiwan, which divides the opinion of independence, as well as the strategic interests of the US and China in the region. Tyshkevich calls for caution in statements and views them as part of a political stamp, not necessarily as a preparation for war.
Summarizing, both experts see the risks and opportunities in Taiwan, but believe that both parties are more interested in political maneuvers rather than in war.
