The National Bank of Ukraine has updated inflation expectations for the next year, worsening the forecast from 9.8% in April to 11.6% in July. This is evidenced by the latest NBU data and bankers.
Inflation in Ukraine slowed down somewhat after peak reaches in May, but bankers do not believe in falling price below 10%. According to the State Statistics Committee, in June 2025, inflation decreased to 14.3% in the annual dimension compared to 15.9% in May. The main factor in reduction was the lack of increase in electricity tariffs this year after a sharp jump by 64% in June 2024.
The inflation expectations of the population also deteriorated - in June they were 10.8%, while in May it was 10.2%. At the same time, financial analysts have improved their forecasts a little - they now expect 7.5% of inflation by May 2026 against 7.9% in the previous forecast.
Business executives in May expected inflation at 10.9%, which is an improvement compared to 11.5% in February.
According to the NBU, inflation reached its maximum in May and in June began to decline, which corresponds to the forecasts of the regulator. However, the total price level remained higher than April macroeconomic forecasts due to adverse weather conditions.
Inflation is expected to continue in the second half of 2025.
