In American politics, an intense race for the presidency is unfolding, and the latest polls show the closeness of the results between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The results of several major polls record the excess of Harris' rating over Trump's rating.
According to The Hill publication, which averaged the results of 114 different polls, 47.8% of voters who have decided on their choice are ready to vote for Harris, while 46.4% are ready for Trump. The Economist gives Harris an even bigger lead: 47.8% to 45%. The New York Times writes that Trump has 47% of the vote against 48 for Harris. The CNBC polls are a little different: they say that Trump leads with a 48% advantage against Harris' 46%.
True, the advantage of Harris is within the limits of statistical error, but the fact itself looks indicative.
However, the specificity of the US electoral system is such that, in general, you can get more votes in the country, but still lose the election. Therefore, voting in so-called swing states is fundamentally important.
And there, too, Harris has progress: according to various polls since early August, Trump has lost Michigan and Wisconsin to Harris. And The New York Times claims that Harris also wins in Pennsylvania with a score of 50 to 46.
And according to the Cook Political Report poll, Harris is ahead (albeit by the same 1-3%) of Trump in all swing states, except for Nevada, where Trump leads, and Georgia, where both candidates are tied.
What do these data say?
The main reason for the growth of Harris's rating is the large anti-Trump rating. And as soon as Biden was replaced by the younger Harris (albeit a rather unpopular figure at the time), the rating of the Democratic candidate immediately went uphill.
Trump's key problem is considered to be his too contrasting political portrait: Trump's views are known, his supporters have long made up their minds, and skeptics can hardly be convinced.
On the other hand, Trump can be sure that he will not confuse his supporters, but the same cannot be said about Harris. Her gains today are largely due to the relief Democratic voters felt when Biden agreed to drop out of the race amid growing talk of his inability to lead the country.
However, it is unlikely that the current burst of enthusiasm will last until November, especially if Republicans do enough to show that Harris is actually a pretty bad candidate.
An important role in the electoral battle will be played by the televised debates to be held on September 10. Trump has reason to bet big on this event, because Harris has a reputation as a poor public speaker, while Trump is strong in these kinds of shows, and he certainly has more experience than Harris, who is used to keeping in Biden's shadow.
But in any case, after the change of candidate from the Democrats, the Republicans will be forced to drastically change their former main line of discrediting the competitor - the aging German of Biden. Now the topic of age hits Trump himself.
What will the Republican emphasize now?
One of the possible lines has already been marked - Ukraine.
Trump recently said that Harris could drag the US into World War III. At the same time, Trump himself declares that he will solve this problem by quickly ending the war in Ukraine.
Also, the topic about which vice-presidential candidate Vance spoke earlier (https://t.me/stranaua/162739) - about inflated military spending - may develop.
"Europeans tell us that America has too many weapons and too little free medicine. That's right. And all because we are forced to finance the security of Europeans, to subsidize their military and industrial policy. If they start paying for themselves, we will have money for medicine for ordinary Americans and for other needs," Vance said back in April.
However, for now, it seems unlikely that the candidate from the Republican Party will start advocating for a reduction in military spending and for free medicine (Republicans traditionally support the American military industry and oppose increased social spending). But, given the huge stakes in the election and Trump's very difficult situation with the ratings, the most unexpected turns cannot be ruled out.
