Poland is known to have decided to take defense seriously, but recent challenges with the supply of 155 mm artillery ammunition demonstrate how difficult it is to implement ambitious plans. According to the Polish publication Rzeczpospolita , the Polish army needs a million of such ammunition to be ready for a possible Russian attack. But does Poland have the capacity for this? Unfortunately, the answer is currently "no".
A few years ago, the situation was such that the Polish army had only a few thousand shells of 155 mm caliber. After the start of the war in Ukraine, the Polish Ministry of Defense turned to suppliers around the world, including South Korea, where the contract for the K9 howitzer was awarded. But the matter was not limited to this.
A few months after the start of the war, Poland decided to purchase ammunition from the German company Rheinmetall, but as it turned out, this decision led to further problems. The contract for 50,000 shells failed due to problems with the subcontractor, the South African company Rheinmetall Denel Munition. According to unofficial sources, the deliveries were blocked by the government of the South African Republic due to fears that the ammunition could be transferred further to Ukraine.
So what to do? Poland currently does not have the capacity to produce such ammunition in sufficient quantities. The state-owned giant Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) can produce approximately 30,000 shells per year - and that's at maximum load. Unfortunately, even with such a situation, PGZ cannot provide for the needs of the Polish army.
To solve this problem, the Law and Justice government passed a secret decree on the expansion and diversification of the national production base. Already in December 2023, an agreement was signed with PGZ for the supply of 285,000 ammunition until 2029 for more than 10 billion zlotys. But this does not ensure the actual production of new capacities, but rather ensures the purchase of components abroad.
At this time, the Polish media reported plans to build a new factory for the production of artillery ammunition. This decision, although it seems logical, there are risks of delay, as well as questions about the effectiveness of such an investment. There are already numerous articles praising potential partners for the implementation of this project, but time will tell whether it will really be effective.
There are also other players in the game, such as Polska Amunicja, which has announced its willingness to supply ammunition. However, there are concerns that the Treasury's interests may not be adequately served and competition may be stiff.
Well, the politicians of Poland have a difficult task. They must decide how quickly and efficiently these plans can be implemented, and whether Polish companies will be able to acquire the necessary capacities. Otherwise, Poland may again find itself in a situation where its defense capabilities will prove to be insufficient in the face of new challenges.
