Energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko considers the current state of the Ukrainian energy system and evaluates its future. According to him, the situation in August should improve, but the complete cessation of shutdown of electricity by Ukrainians should not be expected.
In total, since the beginning of large -scale aggression, Ukraine has lost 70% of the total generation from massive Russian missile and drone attacks. These attacks were especially devastating in March-June 2024, which led to a decrease in generation capacity in the grid by 9 GW compared to March 20 this year.
Green generation - not so stable, depends on the weather. If the day is less solar or windy, its efficiency decreases. In addition, despite active development, it cannot yet block the volume of electricity given to the country by thermal stations. Green generation objects are also periodically destroyed from the aggressor country.
The work of the entire energy system of Ukraine depends to a large extent on the state monopolist of NNEGC "Energoatom", the share of which in the total production is about 50%. But this company has a certain technological specificity that not all consumers understand.
From spring to autumn there is a repair campaign at the NPP units. At this time, experts replace worn equipment, fuel, prepare blocks for high load in winter. If you do not carry out such repair campaigns, a tragic accident may occur. It is not possible to allow this.
Currently, there are about 50% of the company in repair. This fact and frantic heat, which lasts in Ukraine in July, leads to a huge shortage of electricity. Also, through the heat in recent days, there have been several accidents at the output transformers of the NPP, which did not allow to improve the situation with power supply, despite the temperature decrease and early exit from the repair of one NPP block.
Today's emergency shutdowns of light in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya and Kirovograd regions are the result of the accident at the station, as the intersection is overloaded, which is responsible for issuing capacity. This means that the capacity of the main networks that transmit electricity from nuclear power plants to cities and villages suffers.
Throughout the full -scale war, the enemy fights transformers and wires and has damaged them very much. Therefore, network operations were rebuilt, which are less reliable and powerful than required.
It should not be expected that the shutdown will disappear in the near future. The deficit remains as it remains, since some of the power units are still in repair, and some will go into the repair condition later.
At the same time, there are reasonable forecasts that since mid -August, the situation with hourly shutdown schedules will be significantly improved, as 2 factors will be involved at the same time - withdrawal from repairing a number of powerful generation blocks and reducing air temperature.
I decipher these recent energy and children's medical facilities as a Kremlin signal to negotiations on their conditions. That is, the enemy uses an indirect strategy together with the IPSO to ensure that the population begins to push power to "peaceful" negotiations.
So now, as never before, awareness of the Russian plan for the destruction of Ukraine through active operations on energy and information fronts is needed. In these circumstances, we cannot afford in panic moods and tolerate the treacherous plans of the enemy.
