Recently, the issues of mobilization and updating of conscripts have become especially relevant in Ukraine. According to the new legislative requirements, citizens massively update their credentials, which allows to evaluate the potential mobilization resource of the country. However, despite the significant progress in the digitalization of this process, there are numerous problems and prejudices that impede its effective implementation. It is important to understand how these problems affect the overall mobilization campaign, the level of citizens' trust in new tools, such as the Mobile Reserve+Appendix, as well as how the authorities plan to resolve these issues to achieve national security and consolidation of society. A political observer Yuri Vyshnevsky writes about whether the new law has fulfilled the tasks.
From the point of view of mobilization
As it should be expected, the maximum activity of Ukrainians has shown in the last two weeks of 60 days. According to the Ministry of Defense, by the evening of June 30, 2 million 594 thousand citizens were updated, in the evening, on July 7 - 3 million 164 thousand. A week came an increase of 570 thousand by the evening of July 14, the data of 4 million 159 thousand citizens were reached on July 16.
Is it a lot? There are many in terms of mobilization interests. Of course, not all of these 4.4 million can receive a summons. Every second has a reservation or the right to defer. But if at least half of those who have updated the data fall into the category of those who can be mobilized, a mobilization resource of 2.2 million people is obtained.
It is twice as much as an Armed Forces of the Armed Forces and other formations and bodies that are part of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Six months ago, the head of the GUR Kirill Budanov reported that the aggregate defense forces of Ukraine were about 1.1 million.
So, Ukraine has a sufficient mobilization resource to start demobilization of soldiers who are fighting from the first months of the Great War next spring. A month ago, this topic was discussed by the Defense Committee of Parliament with representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces. Following the discussion, the committee secretary Roman Kostenko informed "Ukrainian Truth" that the relevant bill could be submitted in October.
"The General Staff is now truly satisfied with the rate of mobilization. They are satisfied with the number of mobilized, which even exceeds expectations . They hope that this trend will remain," Kostenko explained. According to him, if such a pace is stored by the end of the summer, "then it will be possible to develop and submit to the Council a bill on demobilization." According to Kostenko, the approximate period of readiness of the relevant project is October this year, but if the current rate of mobilization is preserved.
On July 15, Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a press conference. The President was asked how he evaluates a mobilization campaign in Ukraine within two months of the entry into force of the law on strengthening mobilization. " The military says everything is following their plan . As for the training grounds, they are not enough. As for whether they can be expanded, there is already an expansion. As for whether it is possible to expand the base abroad," Zelensky replied.
From the point of view of digitalization
You can update the credentials in three ways: use the mobile application "Reserve +"; to come to the CNAP (Center for Administrative Services); to appear directly in the Tax Code (territorial center of completion and social support). About 70% of those who have updated the data made it online with a smartphone.
Deputy Minister of Defense Kateryna Chernoroenko, who is responsible for the Reserve+, is very satisfied. “2.7 million people have updated data to the Reserve+,” she reported on her Facebook page on July 12.-Approximately 90-100 thousand citizens are updating data online daily. The new record proves that despite all misinformation and classical distrust of our new people, they are more digital and more and more. They made the requirement to update the data, and they did not need to stand in line or wake up at 5am. ”
In fact, the result could be higher if it were not for the fears of many conscripts that they will receive a summons to the CCC after updating the data. "The fact of updating the data did not accelerate the receipt of the summons by the citizen ," - says Chernnoroenko.
Citizens also prejudice directly against the Reserve+. Two weeks ago, Chernororenko's team went to field research to CNAP and TCC to find out why people are in queues, not updating the data for a few minutes on a smartphone. Among the obtained explanations we note three fears:
- I will update the data through "Reserve+" and immediately get the status of "in wanted". “The status of the wanna does not appear due to the updating of data in the application. The CNAP of the TPC will not produce a different result. This is happening, for example, you have been presented with a summons and you have not appeared on it. The time of appearance in the shopping center has expired, you have been stipulated by the law . bodies, ”the Deputy Minister of Defense explains.
- I am afraid that the electronic summons will come to the Reserve+. “There will be no such thing,” Chernihorenko assures, “since the laws of Ukraine on the army and mobilization do not know what electronic summons is. That is, it is not registered in official documents. Therefore, it cannot be in the Reserve+.
- Reserve+monitors geolocation so that I was found then. “This fear is a conspiracy theory,” the Deputy Minister reassures. “In fact, any smartphone can check what applications have access to geodes or ask them. You can personally check that there is no need for geolocation in the Reserve+.
It falls into the eyes as Chernororenko carefully, fighting the prejudices of citizens against "reserve+", plays a prejudice against the Tax Code. Her answers can be interpreted as transparent hints: "Thanks to" Reserve+"you will know in advance that the shopping center is looking for you; do not be afraid," Reserve+"will not help the shopping center find you."
The fact is that Chernororenko in her position does not bother the end result, that is, mobilization. It is concerned about the success of the process itself, that is, updating data with a mobile application. This is what she and her team will receive bonuses and other bonuses.
From the point of view of consolidation
Pursuant to the Law “On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Certain Military Service, Mobilization and Military Accounting”, which was adopted on April 11, 2024, all citizens who are on military account have been updating the data for 60 days, starting on May 18. According to the State Statistics Service, at the beginning of 2022 there were more than 11.4 million men in Ukraine, who are now 18 to 59 years old. Defense forces of Ukraine, we recall, make up about 1.1 million people. They do not need to update the data - they are already at war. And the remaining 10.3 million had to do so.
Suppose that by the evening of July 16, 4.5 million citizens will have time to update. It will still be less than half of 10.3 million and more than half, it turns out, will not comply with the requirements of the law.
However, many conscripts tried to update the credentials using the Reserve+, but the mobile application could not help them. That is, the "reserve+" itself is a malicious violator of the law, not allowing citizens to exercise their legal right to update their credentials in the e -office of the military. The attempt to update the data in the CNAP is also often unsuccessful. And not everyone dare to stand in the CCC.
How many conscripts did the reserve+and CNAP receive? The Ministry of Defense does not consider it necessary to declare these figures - probably because they testify to the poor organization of work. Although, of course, there is a difference - these refusals are a thousand or million. For the Defense Ministry, it turns out that everyone who does not have time to update the data by July 16 was considered to be evaders - not those. Who did not do so because of the ministry. But this approach is obviously damaging the consolidation of society. The results of data updating can be considered as plebiscite among men of mobilization age. And if more than half of those who were obliged to update the data, refused to do so, it is a sad result. The failure of the entire information machine of the state.
This result was programmed by another failure: in the formation of a positive attitude of society to the law on strengthening of mobilization, adopted on April 11. Here is a KIIS survey as part of the Mobilise project.
Only 34%of respondents agreed (fully - 15%, rather - 19%) with the statement "I support the new mobilization law". At the same time, 52% do not agree with this statement (32% - at all, 20% - rather); 14% did not answer the questions.
KIm tried to mitigate the impressions of the survey results: “It should be emphasized that the disagreement is not identical because people oppose (and even more so is not a testament to the need for mobilization or the need to repel the enemy). Certainly, some of those who disagree.
Of course, the figures could be much better if the promotion of this law and agitation for mobilization worked daily videos of the Supreme Commander -in -Chief and the transfer of the telecommunication. But the authorities had other priorities.
And instead of consolidation, the polarization of society both in relation to the law and the updating of data.
