The commander -in -chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky stated that it is impossible to exclude a new offensive of Russia from the territory of Belarus. According to him, the likelihood of exacerbation from the northern direction may increase after the joint military exercises of the Russian Federation and Belarus "West-2025", planned for September.
According to the commander -in -chief, the repetition of the events of February 2022 was not excluded: then the Russian troops did not return to the place of dislocation after the exercises, but used the Belarusian territory as a bridgehead for attack on Kiev. In this regard, the Armed Forces closely monitor the situation on the northern border. Earlier, military analyst Agil Rustamzade stated that Russia's offensive from Belarus is currently unlikely because there is no complete shock group and logistics infrastructure. However, he warned that in the case of serious preparation, this will become noticeable on a number of features, in particular the redeployment of equipment, the creation of the rear and mobilization in the region. In April 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also expressed concern about the possible offensive of the Russian Federation by Belarus. He noted that under the cover of exercises, Russia has repeatedly started military operations. According to him, not only Ukraine but also NATO countries, including Lithuania and Poland, can be threatened. In May, the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus confirmed that the Russian Lishchyna Combat Complex will be located in the Belarusian territory by the end of 2025. According to him, the process goes according to the plan, and the relevant positions have already been determined.
Although there are no direct signs of immediate threat from Belarus, the Armed Forces and Allies of Ukraine carefully monitor the situation. The potential scenario of the offensive through Belarus after the September exercises "West-2025" remains in the focus of defense planning.
