Input (what we know at the moment):

1. A positioning war does not lead to a significant change in the line of collision. According to estimates of military analysts, the capacity of each of the parties in defense exceeds the offensive capacity of the other party.

2. The event does not currently consider the Russian defeat scenario as acceptable for itself, with all the consequences of the quantity and quality of arms supply.

3. Putin has chosen a strategy for exhaustion, in which authoritarian Russia has more chances than Ukraine, depending on democratic allies whose position may change after the elections (in which Russia will inevitably interfere for this purpose).

From this, there are three main scenarios for Ukraine.

1. Continuation of the exhaustion war.

The worst scenario, and so far everything is moving along this trajectory. Changing power in the Western countries will reduce support to the level where Ukraine will not be able to continue the war and will be forced to negotiate peace under Russia. Even if political support is maintained at the current level, the number of stress points in the world will grow, distracting from Ukraine, and the ability of the event to give weapons will start to run out, and nobody will transfer the US or European economy to military rails (Ukraine in any case is not able to provide itself with modern weapons.

In fact, this scenario means the defeat of Ukraine, which leaves no chance to restore the economy (at the same time it is a defeat and Russia, but they are satisfied with the end of the war with a mutual defeat). In domestic policy, Ukraine also has problems because it is impossible to conduct elections during an infinite martial law, and if they are conducted, they either preserve the current government in the worst way that gives the West to finally abandon Ukraine as a undemocratic country, or will have a mass protest, which will have extremely negative consequences.

2. Freezing war.

This scenario gives the event a way out of the current trap "Defeat, Victory and Tightening are equally unacceptable". In this scenario, the Allies leave the support of Ukraine at about the current level to prevent the defeat of Ukraine and not to defeat Russia. Ascertaining the inability to succeed, Western allies bowls to Ukraine's freezing negotiations while pressing Putin at the same time (today he does not need the election today, because the rate is made on the first scenario, but many factors can change the situation). The negotiation will be the initiator of Biden in the spring or summer of 2024 (he needs to look in the election by the winner or at least a peacemaker), or the winner of the US election in the spring of 2025.

After the peace agreement is signed, both parties (Ukraine with the help of the West, Russia through China) begin to prepare intensively for the next war, which will happen in 5 years (at least 3, maximum 7). Since the peace agreement leads to the removal of martial law, democratic elections are held, which win new faces that embody the course for comprehensive modernization, while Zelensky is associated with defeat and comes from a political scene (refusing to hold democratic elections in peacetime). During the preparation, Russia has a chance to study the mistakes of 2022, and Ukraine has a chance to be significantly modernized (not only in the technical but also in the institutional aspect; in brackets I also point out that it is worth starting). In the best version of this scenario, Ukraine is so well upgraded that Russia is warning to attack. In the worst version, Ukraine is poorly prepared, and the second invasion leads to a complete defeat and the establishment of a pro -Russian regime (see the first and second Chechen wars).

3. Victory.

Ukraine manages to convince the Allies that the defeat of Russia is an acceptable scenario (and even desirable). Assistance increases sharply to a level that allows you to successfully conduct a spring-summer counter-offensive, release the South and Crimea, significantly reduce the front line, freeze the occupied part of the East to the best of times and in this format to go on negotiations on Ukrainian conditions. After the peace is signed, Ukraine enters NATO and receives big money to restore and modernize the economy. Victory Ukraine attracts the world's attention in various aspects. The security situation is favorable for economic growth, unlocked seas are open to export. Zelensky easily wins the democratic elections as a winner in the war. Meanwhile, Russian defeat leads to the accumulation of factors that lead to political changes, as it was always in its history after military defeats. These changes (in a mild refined format or in a more likely rigid decolonization format) make the following Russian aggression. The victory scenario is the least probable because it involves the level of strategic and negotiation skills that Ukraine does not now. At the same time, it is the only one that ensures the survival of the ruling political team, and it is good that the interests of society and the political elite coincide.

Two final remarks.

1. There may always be some "black swans" or even "gray rhinos" (an event that has long been waiting). For example, Putin may die, and the length of concealment of this information is much less than required to determine the successor and consolidate the power. But to bet on such events is pointless.

2. Trump is an eccentric and completely unpredictable character, so there is a non -zero probability that due to certain factors, it will suddenly turn towards the maximum support of Ukraine. But it is obvious that to make this bet is just as senseless.

I would like to emphasize again: the future is not defined in advance. The best scenarios are possible, only they need to be embodied, not just believe.

Valery Baker