ACTUAL

In a difficult year on land, drones brought Ukraine success at sea

The use of maritime drones highlights Ukraine's path in the fight against Russia, which is promoted by the White House and supported by the Ukrainian leadership.
Bouncing over choppy waters, Ukrainian naval drones deployed and raced toward a Russian warship, using a swarming tactic that military experts say has proven deadly and effective against the dominant Black Sea navy.

From a safe room hundreds of kilometers away, drone pilots pressed joysticks to accelerate, steer and rotate the on-board cameras while keeping a target in sight. Russian sailors opened fire with large-caliber machine guns.

The brief naval battle between humans and drones lasted several minutes, according to Ukrainian drone operators. According to them, one of the drones flew so close to the target that when the bullets hit the 500-pound warhead it was carrying, the explosion ripped through the hull of the Russian Sergiy Kotov patrol corvette.

"When we hit the target, of course, the whole team was filled with emotions," said the drone operator. The pilot asked to be identified only by the pseudonym "The Thirteenth," describing the Sept. 14 sea battle, one of dozens of such battles over the past year, according to the Ukrainian military, involving drones built in Ukraine.

Such attacks were a rare bright spot in a disappointing year for Ukraine, in which there was no breakthrough at the front.

"We were shouting and cheering each other," the pilot said, describing the mood among drone operators in September. (The Ministry of Defense of Russia then stated that "Serhiy Kotov" prevented the attack of five naval drones).

The use of maritime drones highlights a path Ukraine can take in its fight against Russia, which has been supported by the White House and endorsed by Ukrainian leadership. The idea is to supplement weapons provided by Western partners with weapons produced in Ukraine, including innovative systems such as a fleet of naval drones.

For the foreseeable future, Ukraine will have to rely heavily on military aid in a one-sided war with Russia, a much more populous country and an adversary with much greater industrial potential. Much of that aid is now in question as the US Congress has postponed a vote on military aid.

Faced with such obstacles, the Biden administration is promoting joint ventures between American and Ukrainian arms manufacturers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, who promotes Ukraine as a "hub" for the production and testing of weapons on the battlefield, met with the heads of American military contractors during a visit to Washington last week.

With the Ukrainian offensive stalled and little chance of a ground advance, the goal is to create a real enough threat with drones and long-range missiles to allow for meaningful talks with Russia late next year or in in 2025.

In a White House statement after convening this month's conference on the Ukrainian defense industry, the goal is to "develop a strong and self-sufficient Ukrainian defense industrial base that reflects Ukraine's innovative culture and provides a material base for urgent military needs." The State Department will send an adviser to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine to oversee cooperation, the statement said.

Sprawling military factories in Ukraine were once the cornerstone of the Soviet military industry, building aircraft and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Many of them became obsolete at the end of the Cold War and after Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union.

According to Serhii Grabskyi, a military analyst and reserve colonel, domestic arms manufacturers have provided about 20% of the needs of the Ukrainian army since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022.

Ukraine produces armored vehicles and tanks, self-propelled howitzers, artillery shells and laser-guided anti-tank missiles. However, the greatest potential is seen in combat testing innovative systems that can replace outdated military equipment, military experts say.

Explosive naval drones, a new class of naval weaponry, were first used in combat in defense against Russia's attack on Ukraine. Kyiv manages two production programs, one of which is subordinate to the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence, and the other to the Foreign Intelligence Service.

This month, the Ukrainian military interviewed one of the pilots and allowed them to inspect the workshop and warehouse of drones, with the requirement that his location not be disclosed. According to representatives of military intelligence, this was done in order to demonstrate Ukrainian self-sufficiency at a time when the US Congress is considering providing Ukraine with more military aid.

In the year since the drones entered the Black Sea, they have damaged and sunk dozens of Russian ships, according to the Ukrainian Navy, and played a role, along with missiles provided by the West, in forcing Russia to redeploy ships from Sevastopol harbor, home to one of its four fleets. Moscow Drones helped clear a shipping channel for the export of grain, a critical commodity for the Ukrainian economy. And they pushed Russian missile carriers to launch further from Ukrainian shores, giving air defense forces more warning of strikes. Ukraine does not disclose the size of its drone fleet.

"Nobody has as much experience with maritime drones as we do," said Thirteenth, the drone's pilot, who appeared in an interview wearing a ski mask for safety reasons. "There are no instructors or textbooks. We are writing these books now."

In the dark warehouse, dozens of speedboats, painted gray and black to make them more difficult to spot at sea and at night, were in various stages of assembly.

Some of them were equipped only with cameras for reconnaissance, some with mechanisms for dropping mines in the path of Russian ships.
Most were equipped with nose detonators – three small rubber balls on springs – to detonate high explosives. Using satellite communications, cockpit pilots use remote controls to control the drones, which are designed to attack in swarms of six, increasing the chances of penetrating defenses such as deck-mounted machine guns en route to the hulls of Russian ships.

The last successful naval drone strike carried out by the intelligence agency took place on November 10, when a swarm struck two Russian amphibious ships docked in the Crimean Gulf, sinking both, the program's operators said in an interview.

Russia responded with electronic jamming, as well as placing boom barriers at the mouths of harbors, mounting machine guns on its warships and sailing beyond the range of drones. "With each new operation, we learn, and they learn," said Thirteenth.

Naval warfare researchers say the Ukrainian models have demonstrated how a small military can protect coastal waters with the help of drones.

According to Siddharth Kaushal, a research fellow and naval expert at the Royal Joint Services Institute in London, drones will not replace large surface ships anytime soon.

But "being able to pursue and inflict significant damage on disproportionately expensive vessels is an impressive return on investment," Mr. Kaushal said in a telephone interview.

Ukrainian naval drones have cleared a strip about 200 miles off the Ukrainian coast, according to Trynnasty, the pilot who helped cripple Serhii Kotov. "There is an opportunity to push them back," he said. "The Russian domination of the Black Sea has come to an end."

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