At the beginning of 2024, the active impact of the National Bank on the foreign exchange market of Ukraine is expected, and the hryvnia will gradually weaken. According to experts, in the interbank market, the dollar exchange rate can range from 37.70-38.50 UAH, and an additional increase in the cash market is expected to increase by 50-60 cents.
Anton Kurinny, a dealer of the Global Markets of the OTP Bank, believes that in early January, there is traditionally a currency deficit in Ukraine due to the reduction of exporters' foreign exchange earnings and the pressure of December budget payments. This situation can lead to an increase in demand for currency, which, in turn, will force the National Bank to actively intervene in the market.
"We expect increased demand for currency or a smaller influx of export foreign exchange earnings at the beginning of the year. This will force the National Bank to actively participate in the auction," Kurinny said.
The regulator plans to continue to support the flexible course strategy and gradually weaken the hryvnia. The expert notes that the National Bank will conduct active and passive operations, and its behavior can be slightly unpredictable for market players.
"We expect bidding in the hallway 37.70-38.50 UAH/dollar," the banker predicts.
It should also be noted that the negative impact of delay with international assistance on Ukraine on the foreign exchange market has already been prevented. Chicken believes that the regulator considers different scenarios and has a certain strategy of influencing the market depending on the news.
"That is, we will observe either increased activity of interventions in positive news, or some weakening of the hryvnia during the period of negative expectations and delaying the negotiations related to the provision of funding to Ukraine," he said.
Regarding the impact on inflation and the dollar, the National Bank of Ukraine has determined stability in the foreign exchange market as one of the key factors for slowing inflation. According to the statement of chicken, the current level of inflation makes it possible to move freely, and the regulator consider further strategies of inflation.
"The NBU has been following the inflation targeting strategy for a long time. The regulator based on the analysis of all data draws conclusions about the course strategy," the expert noted.
In December, banks were able to sell currency to the population at a better rate, which led to a decrease in the difference between courses in the interbank and cash markets. According to Kurinny, the difference of these courses has crossed to the level of 50-60 cents per dollar.
"The difference between the cash and non-cash market is unlikely to exceed 50-60 cents. Although, of course, it is sometimes possible to find a spread in small banks when strengthening the hryvnia in the non-cash market, but it is more a temporary" stock ", for which you can try to grasp,"-said the banker.
The dollar rise in early December is noted, which is associated with seasonality and increasing currency needs for the purchase of imported goods. The head of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pishny explained this growth of seasonality factors and increased demand for currency for imports.
In general, at the beginning of 2024 the foreign exchange market of Ukraine is expected dynamic, and market players should follow the news and decisions of the regulator for successful trade strategies.
