In the coming months, the main world intrigue around the war in Ukraine will relate to China. It can become the force that will change the course of events.
It is in this quality that it is perceived both Russia and Ukraine with the West. But everyone in their own way.
Activation in the "Chinese" direction is visible according to the schedules of official visits.
Yesterday and today in Beijing is the head of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov, he was accepted by Xi Jinping. At the end of the week, Germany Chancellor Olaf Solt will go to Beijing. In early May, this will fly to Paris, where he will meet with the macron. In mid -May, Putin will fly to China.
And in mid -June, Ukraine intends to hold a summit in Switzerland by the "formula of peace" of Zelensky. Kyiv and the West very much want China to be present. Because without it, this conference will not fulfill its main role, which Ukraine and the West are given to it - to demonstrate the "unification of the leading world powers" around the "formula of peace" of Zelensky. Which, in this case, will then be presented by the Kremlin as "the requirement of the whole world community."
In turn, this is part of the more general efforts of the West to break China's close connections with Russia, which allow the latter to bypass Western sanctions. Globically, the goal of Ukraine and Western partners is to encourage Beijing to stop Moscow's economic support, which would be a big blow to the Russian Federation. It should be noted that recently the Americans have increased control over compliance with sanctions and expanded their list. After that, there were already problems in the settlements of Chinese banks with the Russians. However, judging by the fact that it did not interrupt the trade of Russia and China, Beijing has a political decision to continue interacting with the Russian Federation despite the sanction.
But the pressure of the event continues. Not so long ago, the media wrote, with reference to the head of the State Department of Blinken, that Washington was concerned about the expansion of military cooperation with China and Russia. Further, the US Finance Minister threatened China with sanctions and other consequences for cooperation with the Russian Federation.
The main lever of the measure of the event on China is the factor of foreign trade. The US and the EU are the main export markets for China, which will be very painful for Beijing. However, the dependence is two -sided - the event also depends on the supply of a huge nomenclature of Chinese goods, which it either cannot replace, or may, but more expensive analogues that are inflation. In addition, the full economic war of the West with China will cause Beijing's "escape" from the dollar and the euro, which will dramatically exacerbate the problems of both these currencies and the world financial system that holds on them.
Therefore, to force China to give up relations with the Russian Federation will be very difficult, if possible.
Moreover, China seems to be intending to implement their plan, which does not coincide with Ukrainian and Western.
Its outlines were manifested literally in the last week.
First, Lavrov in Moscow, at a meeting with the ambassadors, stated that Russia was supporting China's peace plan, which was advanced on February 24, 2023. It should be reminded that it is based on the thesis of the need to cease fire along the front line without withdrawing Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine. That is - the same "Korean scenario". Secondly, Lavrov repeated this very opinion during a visit to Beijing.
That is, in fact, Russia and China have united around the new "formula of peace", making it an alternative to the "Zelensky formula".
And this opens the prospect for a whole spectrum of further action.
First of all, China can put a condition for its participation in a peace conference that, first, the Russian Federation will take part in it. And secondly, in addition to the formula of Zelensky peace, the Chinese "peace plan" should be considered. Which, at the time, to strengthen positions, can be transformed into a wider plan of the "global south" with the involvement of India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and other countries.
There will be three options.
The first - Zelensky and the West refuse to propose China and hold their conference without Beijing and other disagreeable countries, which offset its meaning as a demonstration of "unity of international position" (in parallel, China can hold its conference with Russia, at which it will approve its "peaceful plan").
The second - Ukraine and the West agree to the proposal of China, hold a conference with the participation of Russia and with the discussion of two "formulas of peace". But in this case, there is a risk for Kiev that most participants (due to the quantitative predominance in the west of the "global south" countries) will vote in favor of the "Chinese formula" because it looks more simple and faster to implement (immediate termination along the front line). Naturally, this will not have any compulsory nature for Kiev, but will weaken Ukraine's international position. It will also strengthen the positions of those forces in the West that stand for the war on the front lines as soon as possible.
The third option - before the conference of Ukraine, West, China, leading countries of the Global South and Russia come to a joint decision to develop a compromise plan for the end of the war on the basis of a war on the front line, which is approved at an international conference, signed both sides, it comes into force. It looks extremely unlikely, but if by the time of the conference, the situation on the battlefield for the Armed Forces will deteriorate, and problems with unlock American assistance for Ukraine will not be solved, then its probability will not be zero.
All three options, by and large, arrange Russia, so Moscow now supports the Chinese "peace plan" now.
The question is that the West is also understood, and therefore try to make every effort to give up the alternative "peace plan", participated in the conference on the "formula of peace" of Zelensky, and most importantly - sharply cut off ties with the Russian Federation, stopping it.
In the next two months, before the alleged conference in Switzerland, they will show whether this pressure gave some result, whether Moscow and Beijing will continue joint movement on their plan.
