ACTUAL

Losses or gains: The impact of exchange rate changes on the revenues of the budget of Ukraine

The hryvnia receipts from the sale of foreign currency on the accounts of the State Treasury decreased by UAH 45.18 million in October after the abolition of the fixed dollar exchange rate regime. Data from the State Treasury Service indicate that the conversion of currency funds at the new flexible exchange rate led to budget losses.

In the period from October 2 to October 31, 2023, Ukraine received $1.15 billion in US grants and €1.5 billion in macro-financial assistance from the European Union. However, only part of this amount was used for budget calculations, and the rest remained on the budget's currency accounts.

The legislation provides for the conversion of the received currency at the official rate of the NBU. However, due to fluctuations in the official dollar exchange rate, the government received less hryvnias for budget expenditures.

During October, the government conducted 13 foreign currency conversion operations, receiving UAH 52.245 billion. If the dollar exchange rate had remained fixed, the government would have received UAH 45.18 million more.

Although the dollar exchange rate fluctuated, the government "earned" an additional UAH 8.48 million as a result of conversion operations in the period from October 6 to 8. However, in other periods the official rate was lower than the fixed one, which led to budget "losses", especially on October 17, when they amounted to UAH 39.418 million.

Such an analysis allows us to understand that changes in the dollar exchange rate have a significant impact on hryvnia revenues from currency conversion, causing losses or additional income for the budget.

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