The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, which began on August 6, was a surprise for the Russian military command. Within a few days, the Ukrainian military managed to break through two lines of fortifications and take control of several settlements, as well as the Sudzha gas metering station. Although the Ukrainian command does not officially comment on the situation, analysts of the American Institute for War Study (ISW) have already identified some likely scenarios of Russia's actions in response to this offensive.
1. Using the available forces on the border
One of the options that can be considered by the Russian military command is the use of existing irregular forces, such as FSB border guards, Rosgvardia and conscripts that have already been deployed in border areas. ISW analysts note that this option is possible if the Russian command estimates that less quality and less well -equipped forces will be able to stop Ukrainian units effectively, which, according to reports, use innovative tactics and technological capabilities.
2. Using the Northern Army Group
Another option may be to involve the northern group of troops, which is deployed in the border areas of Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions. This group can be used to dispose of the Ukrainian forces, but its effectiveness remains questionable. The redeployment of these troops to the Kursk region can create vulnerable places in the defense of other border areas, which can cause additional difficulties for the Russian command.
3. Turning operative reserves
The third option involves the transfer of operational reserves that are accumulated for the scheduled on the summer of 2024, from other areas of the front. This decision can be risky because the Russian command can maintain reserves to support more priority areas, in particular in Donetsk region, and to transfer units from less priority areas to Kursk region.
4. Use of aviation and shock units
The latter possible action is attempted to preserve the current forces in the Kursk region, but to strengthen them with significant aviation and shock units. However, as ISW analysts point out, it is unclear whether these forces will be able to effectively use aviation support, and whether it will affect Russia on the ability of Russia to carry out regular air strikes throughout the front line.
