In the second half of 2025, Ukrainians expect changes in the banking market: credit funds are cheaper, but the profitability of deposits can be reduced. Loans - mortgage, automobile, as well as small businesses - should be reduced by approximately 1 percentage point, to 17-18% per annum. This will actually return them to 2024 values.
This was stated by Vice president of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, the Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank Sergey Mammadov in a comment to OBOZ.UA , which is referred by Forex.ua .
The main factor in the potential reduction of loans may be to reduce the discount rate of the National Bank of Ukraine. If it reaches 14-14.5%, it will open up more opportunities for banks to expand lending, especially small and medium -sized businesses.
"This will create the preconditions for more active development of mortgage, auto loan, as well as support of entrepreneurship, as the cost of raised funds will decrease," Mammadov explained.
However, the cost of loans has the downside - less favorable conditions for hryvnia deposits. The profitability of investments in banks can fall by 1-1.5 percentage points, as the benchmark for calculations of banks is a bet on three -month deposit certificates of the NBU, which can be reduced to 17.5-18%.
Among the key economic factors that will form a financial situation in the country in the second half of 2025:
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slowing inflation - expected reduction to 9% in annual dimension;
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economic growth - projected GDP increase by 3%;
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External financial assistance - Ukraine's annual need is estimated at $ 38-40 billion.
Mammadov also stressed that the situation on the front remains critical and has a direct impact on the banking sector: “In the second half of the year, the war will be perceived by society as a greater challenge than inflation or bank rates. It is security that determines people's confidence in the future. And at the same time, trust in the financial system. "
