Two and a half years after the start of a full-scale war in Ukraine, the strategy of the West, in particular the United States, remains unchanged: to balance between supporting Ukraine, punishing Russia, and reducing the risks of conflict escalation. However, as Foreign Policy , this approach is based on the false assumption that Vladimir Putin's intentions can be changed.
War is Putin's choice
When Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, it was a war of his choosing, not a response to some immediate threat to Russia's security. This decision was not forced and was not of critical importance for the survival of the Russian state. Accordingly, Putin can stop this war at any moment. The withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine will not only not pose a threat to the existence of Russia, but will also hardly affect the political position of Putin himself. He could easily declare victory and launch an information campaign justifying his decision.
Putin cannot be convinced
As Foreign Policy , the West's attempts to force Putin to change his position on Ukraine are futile. He sees Ukraine as a potential threat to Russia, which makes his retreat impossible. Putin has made a strategic decision regarding Ukraine that he does not want to abandon, even if it means significant losses for his country.
Western pressure, economic sanctions and political isolation are unlikely to force Putin to end the war on terms acceptable to Kyiv and Washington. For him, war is not just a political tool, but a strategic necessity, which he seeks to realize at any cost.
Possible scenarios of the end of the war
If Putin does not change his position, the war can end in only two ways: either Russia will lose the ability to continue military operations due to the depletion of resources, or Putin will no longer be in power.
Achieving the first result seems unlikely. The Russian army has enough resources for a prolonged standoff, and Putin, despite losses, continues to throw his forces into battle. This leaves the only realistic option – Putin's exit from the Kremlin. Foreign Policy emphasizes that only after his departure will it be possible to begin real negotiations on a permanent settlement of the war.
Waiting for Putin - or changing the approach?
Until then, Washington should focus on helping Ukraine to hold the front and prevent further Russian military successes. This is an unsatisfactory and politically unpleasant approach, but it is the only realistic one, according to Foreign Policy .
However, this approach has its risks. Waiting for regime change in Russia is a strategy that can prolong the conflict indefinitely, as well as create additional challenges for the international community. Are there alternatives? This question remains open, and the answers to it will require new strategic decisions and a deep analysis of international politics.
