A analysts of the JP Morgan Chase leading investment bank have presented a detailed forecast of possible options for the end of the war in Ukraine. In their report, they identified four main scenarios, each of which has its own political and geostrategic consequences for the region and the world.
The first scenario is South Korean (probability 15%). According to this option, Ukraine does not join NATO and does not return all temporarily occupied territories. However, the EU peacekeeping mission is unfolding on its territory, and the US is provided security guarantees. Frozen Russian assets in Europe worth about $ 300 billion are directed to the restoration of Ukraine.
The second scenario is Israeli (probability of 20%). In this case, Ukraine receives significant military and financial support, but international military contingents are not located on its territory. Kyiv turns into a powerful defensive fortress on the border between Europe and Russia. Sanctions against the Russian Federation are partially removed, but the risk of renewal of combat remains high.
The third scenario is Belarusian (probability 15%). Analysts evaluate this option as unlikely. It envisages termination of US assistance and the inability of Europe to compensate for these losses. As a result of Ukraine, Ukraine capitals and becomes a protectorate of Russia, the West loses its unity, and Moscow wins the war.
The fourth scenario is Georgian (50%probability). The most likely, according to analysts, the script. Ukraine continues resistance with the support of the event, but this support is not enough for final victory. Kiev retains its sovereignty, but does not become an EU member and gradually finds itself in the area of influence of Russia, similar to the situation with Georgia.
Thus, although the war in Ukraine is ongoing, JP Morgan Chase analysts see several possible limbs of conflict, each of which will have serious consequences for regional security and international relations.
