The melting of glaciers in the Arctic becomes not only an environmental problem, but also creates the prerequisites for a new global struggle for resources and control over strategic routes. The opening of access to giant mineral deposits and the launch of new transport corridors from Asia to Europe make the Arctic an area of interest for the world's largest players. Among them are Russia and China, which are already actively preparing for possible conflicts in the region.
Active melting of glaciers is probably one of the main environmental threats of the 21st century. It can lead to irreversible climatic changes on a planetary scale. However, glaciers are no less important in the geopolitical sense. After all, trillions of dollars worth of resources lie under the ice of the Arctic Ocean.
The thawing of the Arctic is an event that can be safely compared to the Age of Great Geographical Discovery, when modern Western civilization was de facto born. And these events are being prepared not only in the climate and ecology research centers, but also in the political centers of the countries related to the Arctic and beyond.
What is the Arctic?
The Arctic traditionally refers to the territories beyond the Arctic Circle. Therefore, eight states are Arctic: the Russian Federation (53% of the length of the coastline of the Arctic Ocean), Canada, the USA, Iceland, Denmark (Greenland and the Faroe Islands are territories endowed with a special status), Norway, Sweden and Finland. Six of them (except Sweden and Finland) have access to the Arctic Ocean. Seven of the eight Arctic states are members of NATO, but Russia's large coastline allows it to claim dominance in this region.
About 4 million people, dozens of indigenous peoples live in the Arctic. Iceland, Greenland and the Faroe Islands are entirely in the Arctic, and 40% of Canada is also in the region. Although living conditions in the Arctic are quite difficult, people inhabited this area thousands of years ago. It began to be inhabited more actively from the end of the 19th century, which was facilitated by technological progress. It is clear that the technologies of the 21st century open fundamentally new opportunities for humanity in this direction.
Wealth is not under the ground, but under the ice
The Arctic Ocean is valuable in itself. This is the rare case when water goes to the price of gold. In the conditions when there is significant drainage of territories in the regions closer to the equator, which leads to a water shortage, the fresh water of the Arctic glaciers has every chance of becoming "white gold" in the 21st century. The Arctic Ocean is also rich in more traditional valuable natural resources: oil (about 412 billion barrels in total), gas, ores of precious metals, a total of 22% of the world's mineral reserves.
Who owns the Arctic?
The peculiarity of the Arctic is that most of it is the expanse of the ocean. Solid spaces, which are frozen glaciers thousands of years ago. Only its extreme parts are the northern regions of Eurasia and America, mainly islands. Yes, Greenland, more than 80% of whose territory is covered with ice, is the largest island in the world. This fact significantly distinguishes the Arctic from the Antarctic, which is based around the full continent of Antarctica, from the point of view of international law. After all, the territories claimed by the Arctic states are classified as maritime economic zones. Therefore, the natural resources of the state should be developed precisely based on the specified rules. Namely, at a distance of no more than 200 nautical miles from their coastline, on the other hand, there is an idea among the Arctic countries to increase this distance to 350 nautical miles. The option of evenly dividing the entire Arctic in proportion to the length of the coastline of each country is also being considered. It is clear that such a division will be the most beneficial for the Russian Federation.
For the joint management of the Arctic, the qualitative organization of scientific research, the organization of logistics and harmonious commercial use, several international organizations were formed, in particular, the Nordic Council (founded in 1952), the Barents Euro-Atlantic Council (BEAC), and the most influential among them is the one founded in 1996 Arctic Council.
The Kremlin is advancing, Putin is withdrawing his troops
Arctic states mainly interact within the framework of this organization. However, this distribution of the Arctic and the method of its development did not satisfy Russia. In Moscow, it is customary to express dissatisfaction with the current world order (in this case, in the part related to maritime law) and refer to ancient historical images. In particular, referring to the island of Svalbard, which was rejected from Russia as a result of the First World War. Despite its small size in terms of the region and sparse population, it plays a strategic role due to its geographical location. It significantly expands Norway's economic zone and its military-strategic capabilities in the region. However, unlike Crimea, this island, along with all of Norway, has been under the NATO umbrella since 1949. Therefore, the Kremlin is more cautious here.
The pressure of Moscow in the region is directly proportional to the intensity of the melting of Arctic glaciers. Back in 2007, the Russians planted a flag at the bottom of the ocean at the geographic north pole of the Earth. Especially the processes accelerated after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Since 2015, the Russian Federation has been regularly conducting military exercises and developing its infrastructure in the region. A separate Arctic army was even created.
In this way, the Russian Federation outlined its ambitions for control in the Arctic as directly as possible, which clearly do not coincide with the current norms of international maritime law. Former NATO analyst Maurizio Geri believes that Putin will try to take control of Arctic resources, because this will be the key to the survival of his regime. To this end, the Kremlin is withdrawing troops to the region — and at the moment, the Russian Federation exceeds other Arctic countries in the number of submarines and military bases located in the Arctic.
Why is China here?
In addition to the Arctic countries, other countries are also present in the region under the pretext of various humanitarian missions (mainly related to ecology), among which India and the People's Republic of China stand out.
In the near term, Beijing is interested in the Arctic as an alternative trade route. Logistics to Europe via the Arctic is much closer than via the Indian Ocean. The opening of the Trans-Arctic trade route will be a transformation of the world economy equal to the opening at one time of the same route through India, which led to the decline of the traditional trade route and the civilizations that were on its way. Matthew Hickey, the deputy director of the American Center for Security Studies in the Arctic, connects all the fuss about the Arctic with the potential of opening a new logistics route.
Should there be a Trans-Arctic route?
Over the past almost forty years, the area of ice in the Arctic has almost halved (from 7.05 million sq. km in 1979 to 3.92 million sq. km in 2020), which makes the prospects of a trans-Arctic trade route more than real.
However, there are currently numerous factors that continue to make the route through the Indian Ocean and even the Cape of Good Hope more profitable despite their considerable distance. Among them, the biggest problem is the lack of proper maritime infrastructure along the Russian coastline. To explain in simple words, in the event of a shipwreck (which is quite likely in the conditions of the northern seas, where numerous pieces of ice float), there is a high probability that the rescuers will not be able to arrive in time. In addition to the ethical point (the risk to the lives of the crew), it is also a huge cost of insurance, which is significantly more expensive than the difference in the cost of fuel (simplified), which must be purchased for the trip through the Cape of Good Hope.
Also, the complete disappearance of icebergs in the region is not expected in the near future. On the contrary, the melting of Arctic glaciers only contributes to the increase in the number of ice floes in the waters. So for real commercial shipping in the region, the commercial vessels that will ply the route will need to be modified to suit the Arctic characteristics, which are the exact opposite of the tropical ones that the ships serving the route currently operate in.
So currently, Moscow is traditionally satisfied with loud, ambitious statements about a "bright future" and the routes of its own ships, which, in relation to the potential scale of the project, are purely symbolic and have an exclusively propaganda effect for internal use.
China is preparing an Arctic fleet
However, there is no need to rush to bury the northern route, because in addition to the Russian Federation, China also has a certain interest in it. And this country has repeatedly proven that it is capable of implementing large-scale strategic projects. In the conditions of the economic problems in which the Celestial Empire is currently plunging, the construction of a grand Arctic merchant fleet gave a significant boost to the economy. At the same time, Chinese raiders have essentially already destroyed the trade route through the Red Sea (the shortest currently available).
In the medium term, we do not rule out problems with the alternative route through the Atlantic Ocean, which is already problematic because it is much longer than the route through the Red Sea. And here is the time when the PRC will come to the fore with its Arctic fleet. The Russian Federation, with its approach to the case, will traditionally play the role of a watchdog. However, the Kremlin seems to have already got used to this role and therefore does not particularly protest.
A new division of the world and golden mountains instead of icebergs
The Arctic, together with the Antarctic, are the only regions that man has not yet mastered on the Earth's surface. This is not due to human altruism, but to more prosaic factors — the lack of technical capabilities to do this. Now, when they have appeared, humanity can witness a retrospective of the times of the colonial division of the world only with the latest weapons, including weapons of mass destruction. Such factors were not in the hands of the colonizers of past eras.
After all, there will be a chance to test by experimental method how much humanity has progressed morally and ethically since the Age of Great Geographical Discoveries.
