The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has ambiguous expectations in Ukraine based on his decisive rhetoric to end the war. Thoughts among Ukrainians were divided: part of society fears that Trump can offer peaceful conditions that will be more profitable to Russia, while others see a leader who can quickly stop the conflict. Although for many ordinary Ukrainians, this political shift in the United States has not become a shock, military and diplomatic circles perceive it with great attention because the US has a decisive influence on Ukraine's support.
Trump has repeatedly declared his desire to end the war for 24 hours, motivating it as a peacekeeper and perhaps even a contender for the Nobel Peace Prize. Considering his speeches, there is reason to believe that Trump plans to start the negotiation process as soon as possible. It is predicted that it will offer ceasefire along the front lines, the creation of demilitarized zones, and will require guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO. However, this approach is likely to cause a fierce resistance in Ukraine, where national safety and preservation of sovereignty are in the first place.
Russia's response to Trump's election is currently restrained, but the Kremlin is likely to require significant concessions that will include control over territories in eastern Ukraine. This creates a challenge for Trump, because, agreeing to Russia, it risks seeming weak not only in the US eyes but also in the international community. This will be a significant threat to the US image as a leader in the international arena, in particular in the context of geopolitical confrontations in the Taiwanese Strait and the Middle East.
Trump's attempt to promote negotiations can lead to a diplomatic deaf angle, after which he will probably increase pressure on Russia, threatening an increase in military support for Ukraine. However, its support will be rather limited and tactical. Most likely, the financial assistance of Ukraine by the United States will become credit (in the format of Land League) and may lose free. This will allow Trump to control Ukraine as a pressure lever on both Russia and Kiev.
If negotiations begin, they are likely to be delayed as key compromises for both sides are unlikely. Discussing such important aspects as the status of demilitarized zones and ceasefire control mechanisms will take time and careful technical agreements. There is a likelihood of involving the UN peacekeeping forces, but even in this case, the Security Council will require long and complex agreements.
So, although Trump can accelerate international political processes around Ukraine, the expectations of the rapid end of the war are unlikely. Most likely, the process of peace negotiations will continue in parallel with hostilities for at least several months, and the achievement of a stable agreement will remain under a big question. Trump, seeking a peacekeeping image, can be a catalyst for attempts at a peaceful solution, but the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is likely to remain a topical challenge in the international arena over the coming years.
