In February 2022, the space industry was shocked by a large -scale catastrophe, when the SpaceX 38 satellites belonging to SpaceX lost their control and burned in the atmosphere. This event was the largest loss of spacecraft in history and has led to millions of losses for SpaceX. Satellites were in an intermediate low orbit (about 200 km), where they were to be gradually raised to higher orbits. However, instead, they got off the orbit due to the unforeseen atmospheric situation.
The cause of this catastrophe has long remained uncertain. Many studies that appeared after the incident indicated the influence of magnetic storms that occurred in the same period as the main cause of problems. However, a team of scientists from the Institute of Ionosphere of NTU "Kharkiv Polytechnic University" suggested that it was different. Based on the data obtained through the ionospheric observatory and mathematical modeling of the Earth space, Kharkiv scientists have identified two important factors. First, the atmosphere at that time was much thick than predicted international models used to calculate satellite braking. This means that Starlink's satellites could lose orbit even without magnetic storms. Secondly, scientists have found that such situations where the atmosphere is unpredictable happens quite often, which increases the risk of such catastrophes in the future.
“It was a complete surprise for everyone. Huge financial losses and the need to find the answer to the main question of the cause of this catastrophe have led to the fact that the experts of the space industry have focused on this problem, ” - said Dmitry Kotov, a scientist of Kharkiv Polytechnic University.
Scientists believe that in order to prevent such incidents, it is necessary to improve the atmospheric prognosis, especially taking into account its unpredictability in low orbits. Thus, finding out the exact conditions in space and correct modeling of the atmosphere are important for the safety of space missions in the future.
