Last year, it seemed to be a short time that Ursula Fon Der Liaien may have problems for the second term as President of the European Commission.
During his unscheduled trip to Israel in October, she stood next to Benjamin Netanyhah and expressed unconditional solidarity in the country's struggle against Hamas.
Her statement would be inappropriate in the mouth of the US President or, in fact, German politics (which, after all, was von der Liaien before she joined the post). But the speeches of the head of one of the most powerful institutions of the European Union on one of the most conflicting topics in the block caused the most negative reaction in four years of her post.
Diplomats were outraged by Fon Der Liaan that she ignored the joint statement of EU foreign ministers, representing the Bloc's position and calling Israel for restraint and respect for international law. About 800 commission staff signed a letter criticizing its "unconditional", "uncontrolled" support of "one of two parties" in the conflict. The main diplomat of von der Lyen Josep Borrelly has publicly reproached her for being doing, which speaks on behalf of the entire EU.
"She is increasingly behaving as a queen," said then , criticizing her for exceeding her job descriptions, eliminating EU governments from decision making and managing a small group of advisers through decrees.
However, rewind a few months ahead, and the position of von der Lien is firm again. Without apologizing or retreating, she withstood a political storm and came out, if not stronger than ever, at least intact. Not only does it remain a favorite for the second term as the President of the Commission; No other candidate seems to have a chance to replace it when EU leaders will meet this summer to share their main positions in the block.
Name this by von Derlyin. The same power through which she got into trouble helped her survive not only this crisis, but also all other challenges over 20 years in politics. Faced with criticism, von der Layen demonstrates the almost Trump's ability to expose it - holding it steadily and smiling at difficulty until her detractors fall off.
In November, Politico in November Der Liaien refused to confirm that she was running again , but gladly answered what she would do with the second mandate, saying that it would "retain the direction of motion for big topics" from its current mandate - namely the green agreement, digital transitions and sustainability.
In conversations with dozens of EU officials and diplomats, there were few doubts that the second mandate belongs to her if she wants it. The criticism in Brussels died again or at least remained behind the closed doors, as officials do not want to risk the cross section of the 13th floor headquarters of the BerlayMont commission, where von Der Lyen and her team have their own offices.
When she answered Politico's questions, she broke out in her eyes that left a little doubt about her ambitions in the room - or her belief that no one would be able to stop her. But despite the fact that the undisputed repeated coronation remains the most likely result, there is still a chance that a surprise awaits it.
Queen of returning home
Background Der Liaan arrived in Brussels almost unexpectedly. When her name appeared in 2019 during the auction after the elections to the European Parliament, she was something like a riddle outside Berlin, where she rose in German politics under the reign of the then Chancellor Angela Merkel.
However, for the then German Minister of Defense, this step was a return home. Her father Ernst Albrecht was one of the first EU civil servants. She spent the first 13 years of her life in the Brussels district of Ixel, in the shadow of EU institutions, attending a European school. “Brussels native. European soul, ”she likes to describe herself .
It was also a chance to jump from a sinking ship. Initially, she was considered a protege of Merkel, but her career declined because of a scandal using her external consultants without proper supervision. Even when von der Layen moved to one of the highest EU offices, she was faced with a parliamentary investigation at home, and legislators hated the abrasion of mobile phones that they could have evidence in this case. It would not have been the last time she got into hot water due to the disappearance of text messages.
However, it did not take a long time for the criticism to disappear. Von Der Liaan quickly changed her profile in Brussels, becoming perhaps the most influential president of the commission after Jacques Delor, Titan of European Policy, who died in December .
It is known that she sleeps in the headquarters of the commission. It works many hours including weekends. During missions abroad, she sometimes gets training in training to save time; Having a doctor's education, she knows the benefits of Mens Sana in Corpore Sano . Her grueling work and travel schedules have become a joke in the European quarter, especially among helpers.
Her pressure under pressure testified as a successful chief crisis manager: dynamic, well -prepared, extremely close to Washington, capable of cutting a fog, which sometimes envelops Brussels. Since her courage was tested initially by the Covid-19 pandemic and then war in Ukraine, it became a public face in the European capitals sometimes a remote European bureaucratic machine.
It also helped that in the constellation of the European power of the stars around it lost its shine. The leaders of France and Germany are perceived as arrogant and removed or ineffective and boring. Her institutional rival, President of the European Council Charles Michelle, is considered in Brussels scattered and prone to mistakes , especially after the SOFAGATE scandal, in which his obvious attempt to raise background der Layen during a visit to Turkey made him look sexy, unnoticed and uncompetitive.
It was "almost in the style of a card house", - said Teresa Kun, professor of European studies of Amsterdam University. "She took advantage of this opportunity to push herself forward, and he really got into the trap."
Michel announced on Saturday that he would run as a candidate for elections to the European Parliament in June, that is, he will almost certainly leave his current position in July.
Growing grunts
The trouble for von der Lien is that its very power is one of its greatest vulnerable places.
Overcoming its crises, it sometimes pushes its own commissioners or - which is more controversial - disrupts the decisions from the hands of national governments, which are accustomed to managing in Brussels. For example, after a full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, the commission mostly kept a secret to discussing sanctions , coordinating actions with Paris, Berlin and Rome, as well as Washington, and presented a package only at the last moment when the Member States were ready to consider it.
"The EU has always been criticized as slow," Kun said. "Sometimes it really captures some power in making some decisions, but on the other hand, it is the most effective way to finish the matter."
It can be true. But her monarchical approach and centralization instincts also stirred Brussels - and not only in the everlasting European Parliament, where legislators have always ineffectively agitated for more democratic supervision.
Several high -ranking officials of the commission told Politico that the style of von Der Lyen and its team is complained at all levels of the EU executive power. "It drives us all out of the mind," said a representative of the European Commission, who, like other cited in this story, asked to remain anonymous to discuss his boss. "If it remains for another term, there will be a clear signal from the inside of the building that everything will have to be changed."
More concern to von der Lien is that irritation also increases in European capitals, which she will need to support to get the second term.
EU diplomats often try to catch up with Fon Der Lyen's statements from China's policy to relations with the United Kingdom and recently on its position on Israel. "She is doing her business without official consultations with Member States," said one EU official. "There was a lot of understanding of this at the beginning of [Ukrainian] war, but the patience ends."
The commission has been arguing with Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who was not ashamed to express this criticism. "How often it seems to the public that the commission and its president are governed by Europe," said recently. "We think of her and read her words as if the leader of Europe was saying, although in fact she is our employee, our paid employee, whose work is to do what we solve."
Orban, who in itself would not have the authority to block her nomination may be the only leader who makes such public statements. But, as is often the case in Brussels, it is impossible to know how many others hide behind him.
According to several French officials, French President Emmanuel Macron is annoying repeated demonstrations of Independence of von Der Lyen. Her initiatives on the war of Israel and Hamas were considered in Paris as "pre -campaign", "personal PR", - said the French diplomat.
"She thinks she has no chief," the diplomat said. “If we cannot control it, we need to take control… We have sent her a clear message that she has trusted persons, and they give her a mandate. ”
Such grunts are unlikely to get power until there is no other candidate around whom her detractors could unite. And whether or not this will depend on the elections to the European Parliament, the results of which are considered a bell of European sentiment, which help to determine who should receive the highest positions in the block.
In order to take a position, Background Der Liaien must be nominated by European leaders and confirmed by the European Parliament. In 2019, she was appointed to the support of the EU pro -European parties, who called themselves: the conservative European People's Party, the Socialists and the Renew Liberal Group.
This only provided her with a small majority: 383 votes, just above the minimum in 374. With the extreme right ones, which splashed throughout Europe, von Der Lyen can hardly repeat this victory. "A real surprise can happen," said the French MP of the European Parliament from one of the pro -European parties.
If this time the coalition fails, "most will not be," the deputy said. “And the topics of von der Lien will just be gone. If we can't find the majority, it will be unmanageable. This is very possible. "
Similar comments begin to come from European diplomats: "She is undoubtedly a leader, but given these polls ... It is too early to say if it is probably re -elected," said a diplomat from Central Europe.
"This time, most can be very difficult to find, and most can be very weak, probably too weak," the second diplomat said. “It is unclear how it will affect its re -election. It is clear that this background is very difficult to provide reliable guarantees. "
Call shots
Above the process of selection of von der Lien hangs Damocles a sword in the form of a giant syringe. Although this remains a distant opportunity, the large news in the so -called Pfizergate scandal could completely change the discussion.
It is expected that at the beginning of 2024 the court will make a decision on the New York Times against the European Commission for not providing access to text messages exchanged by von Der Lyen and Albert Burla, CEO of the Pfizer Pharmaceutical Giant.
The differences are in 2021, when, according to New York Times , von Der Lyen and Albert Burla personally agreed on the vaccine agreement under which Pfizer agreed to provide EU countries 900 million doses, or enough to vaccinate the block three times more, with the ability to buy this amount again.
The EU has already concluded two agreements with Pfizer and Biontech, another vaccine company. But this agreement was unprecedented in its scale. Previous agreements were held through a difficult negotiation process with the involvement of a board from representatives of all 27 EU countries, as well as individual negotiators. In this case, von Der Lyen allegedly discussed the main points of the agreement directly with the Burla through text messages.
According to a person familiar with the negotiations, the commission then introduced these conditions to the European capitals, which signed them, clearing the way to draw up an official contract.
The commission denied journalists in requests for freedom of text messages, claiming that if they exist, it cannot find them. Various guard agencies also tried to shed light on this issue - unsuccessfully. The Special Parliamentary Committee on Pandemia Investigation, which tried to force the President of the Commission to speak to the group to answer the question, did not get more clarity.
"We are talking about billions of income that these vaccines have received," said the Belgian MP Kathleen Van Brampt, who headed a special committee.
The legislator said that she did not believe that the chairman of the commission was personally corrupt, but opacity is undermines democratic supervision: “I am not against profit, but everything should be transparent, understandable, and according to the rules. And they were not. "
In her branded manner, von der Lien refused to solve this problem - even when the cameras were directed at her face .
So far it was a winning strategy. The scandal did not receive resonance outside of journalists in Brussels and skeptics against vaccines. "The Brussels Arena is not the arena that is very carefully checked by a large audience," said TIS Clausen, head of the Fleishmanhillard PR department and public ties. “Who follows the Brussels discourse? These are elites. "
One can only guess whether this court's decision is changing. Although the European Union, which resolves the case, cannot force it to transmit a message, it may be embarrassment at a politically delicate moment.
Even more potentially explosive is the current investigation of the European Prosecutor's Office to purchase vaccines in the EU. It is unknown whether von der Liaien is in the prosecutor's office, but this cannot be ruled out.
Meanwhile, lawsuits begin to extend , as it becomes clear that the EU has spent billions of euros on mega-ride from Pfizer. Politico's analysis showed that at least 215 million doses of vaccines purchased in the midst of the pandemic were thrown out of garbage, and taxpayers cost 4 billion euros.
In some countries, anger is growing. Both Poland and Hungary have abandoned some vaccine supplies in general, stating that they were sufficient, that the JV had a judicial conflict with Pfizer . In Romania, the prosecutor's office is investigating former Prime Minister Florin Tsitsa on denied injections. They claim that the former Prime Minister, together with his ministers, is responsible for losses of more than 1 billion euros due to unused doses. Proponents of the ex-head of the government consider the investigation politically motivated .
If the background of der Liaan is worried about all this, it does not allow it to show it - and it is unlikely to allow, whatever news, allow you to see in the sweat.
Whatever happens, whatever decisions, whatever the results of various investigations, the most likely scenario remains unchanged: background der Liaen smiles coldly for a second term.
