On February 23, 2025, an extraordinary parliamentary election will be held in Germany. They resulted from a political crisis that unfolded through the collapse of the ruling three -party coalition (SPD + Green Party + Free Democrats). After the release of the free Democrats, the government of Olaf Scholz lost the majority and became the minority government.
On December 16, the Parliament is expected to express distrust of the current chancellor, and the country will officially start preparing for the election. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier supported this initiative, calling on February 23 a "realistic date."
Although Scholz is losing support, his Social Democratic Party (SPD) has decided to keep him as a candidate for the post of chancellor. Instead, the most popular figure among the Germans is the Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, who in fresh polls is ahead of not only Scholz but also the leader of the opposition Friedrich Martz.
Against the background of the weakening of the positions of the Social Democrats, the popularity of the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU), headed by Friedrich Martz, is growing. In the event of victory, he may lead the government, which will significantly affect Germany's policy, in particular in the issue of support of Ukraine.
Merz promises radical changes in defensive policy. He openly supports Ukraine's long -range missiles for Russian purposes and advocates NATO troops to Ukraine if the Kremlin does not stop aggression.
Experts suggest that the new German government is likely to become coalition. Political scientist Alexei Yakubin believes that it can be a "big coalition" with the participation of SPD and CDU, but with Merz as a chancellor. He notes that internal differences between parties can delay attention from international policy.
"During the election campaign, the focus on the Ukrainian question will decrease, which creates risks to further assistance to Ukraine," the expert said.
In turn, Ivan UA from the center of foreign policy studies emphasizes possible positive changes. In the event of CDU/CSU and Green, Ukraine's support may become even more decisive, including the provision of weapons that have previously been held back by political restrictions.
Despite political changes, Germany has already planned large -scale military assistance for Ukraine worth € 1.4 billion, which should be provided by the end of 2024. The package includes Iris-T, Skynex, howitzers, battle drones and other types of modern weapons.
Ukraine continues to work closely with the current Chancellor Olaf Scholtz. During his last conversation with Vladimir Zelensky Scholz, he confirmed the transfer of the next IRIS-T system and emphasized the importance of preserving the Ramstein format.
Although the elections in Germany can change the composition of the government, Ukraine's strategic support will remain a priority for any new chancellor. However, a period of political uncertainty can be a challenge for Kiev, as Berlin's attention will partially shift to internal issues.
