In 2025, fuel prices in Ukraine should increase by 13%, which is a consequence of the planned increase in excise duties, reports the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in its inflation report. This increase, in particular, will affect the liquefied gas and will affect the cost of other goods and transport services.
The rise in fuel prices will be due to several factors. The main one is the increase in excise duty on fuel, which is planned for September 2025. This will especially affect the cost of liquefied gas, as it responds most to changes in excise policy. In addition, the rise in fuel will be affected by the increase in the cost of raw materials, increased demand in Europe and the embargo on imports of Russian oil products, which came into force on December 20, 2024.
Despite these factors, the possible reduction of global oil prices can mitigate the impact of excise taxes and promote the rate of rise in price of fuel in the medium term. Oil prices have declined, which, combined with limited demand and stored accumulated, allowed to contain the increase in the cost of gasoline and diesel. Also important was the accumulation of stocks of fuel importers and gas station networks before increasing excise duties.
In general, although fuel prices will grow, the overall picture will depend on fluctuations in the world oil markets, internal tax changes and competitors' strategies in the fuel market. The projected increase in excise duties and activation of fuel imports at the end of 2024 allow traders to accumulate the necessary stocks, which can partially reduce the pressure on prices in early 2025.
