The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reports that the winter of 2023-2024 will be the coldest in recent years. Temperatures through March will be mostly below the levels recorded in the previous two winters, although they will remain above the multi-year seasonal norm.
According to Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2, the weather can be unpredictable due to a possible Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) phenomenon, which causes a weakening of the polar vortex, a key system that keeps cold Arctic air at the poles. "We are closely monitoring the current weather conditions. They may indicate an increased probability of SSWs later this winter," Pedrini noted.
Maxar meteorologist Matthew Dross predicts mostly mild conditions in northern and central Europe. At the same time, a colder climate is expected in the south, particularly in Italy and the Balkans.
December can bring a sharp drop in temperature, especially in the northern regions of Europe. In Norway's capital, Oslo, the average temperature will reach -12 °C on December 8, 9 degrees below the 30-year average. Because of this, the demand for heating will increase to levels that will exceed seasonal norms.
In general, despite the expected cold periods, the climatic conditions will be less severe than the average winter indicators of the last century.
