Migration voters are a threat to ruling parties on the eve of the US, Britain and the EU elections next year.
Brussels - Western leaders are trying to decide how to cope with two epochal wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine. But there is another problem that is much closer to home that leads governments in Europe and America: Migration.
In recent days, US President Joe Biden, his French colleague Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Richa Snak got into a mess against the background of strong internal pressure aimed at combating immigration; All three as a result were weakened. The rates are high because US, British and European voters go to polling stations in 2024.
"There is a temptation to look for quick decisions," said Rashmin Saga, Director of the International Law Center, Catham House in London. "But illegal migration is an extremely difficult problem. And its solution requires long -term political thinking that goes beyond national borders."
Since the election campaign has already begun, long -term plans can be difficult to find. Far -right, anti -immigrant populists who promise sharp answers, receive support in many Western democracies, forcing major parties to count costs. Less than a month ago, in the Netherlands, pragmatic Dutch centers lost to the antimigrant radical.
Who will be next?
Rishi Saknak, the United Kingdom
in the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Richa Snak is under pressure from members of his own ruling conservative party, who fear that voters will punish them for the inability of the government to take migration control.
Prime Minister of Great Britain Risha Sunak performs during a press conference in Duver on June 5, 2023 in Duver, England | Photo by Yui Mok/WPA through Getty Images
seven years ago, voters supported Brexit because Euroskeptics promised to "regain control" over the borders of Great Britain. Instead, the picture is more chaotic than ever. Last month, the United Kingdom recorded a record duty migration, and the government was still unable to stop small boats with shelter seekers crossing La Cuns.
Sunak is now on the line of fire. He promised to stop the boats, which became the central element of his premiere. In the process of this, he burned the war in his already split party on how far Britain should go.
According to Snak agreement with Rwanda, the Central African country agreed to relocate asylum seekers who came to British shores on small boats. The Prime Minister has stated that this policy will first and foremost restrain migrants from maritime crossing to the UK. But the plan was canceled by the Supreme Court in London, and now Tori Snak cannot agree on what to do next.
Having experienced what threatened with a catastrophic rebellion in Parliament on Tuesday, the British Prime Minister is still faced with a brutal battle in the legislative body regarding the Rwanda Law on Rwanda early next year.
Snak ends time to find a solution. Elections are expected next fall.
Emmanuel Macron, France,
French President suffered an unexpected blow when the lower house of parliament rejected this week his main immigration bill.
French President Emmanuel Macron in the Elysee Palace in Paris, June 21, 2023 | Ludovic Marin/AFP Via Getty Images,
after defeat in the parliamentary elections last year, legislation through the national meeting became a difficult process for Macron. He was repeatedly forced to rely on the voices of the Right Party of Republicans.
The Macron bill on immigration was to satisfy both conservatives and left -footed by a carefully thoughtful combination of repressive and liberal measures. But the national assembly, which was split between centrists, left and far -right right, voted against this law on the first day of the debate.
Macron is now looking for a compromise. The government has instructed the joint committee of senators and deputies to look for an agreement. But most likely, their text will be tougher than the initial project, given that the Senate is dominated by centericists - and this will be a problem for the left -handed Macron legislators.
If the compromise is not found, Marin Le Pen will be able to do the Macron's failure on the eve of the European Parliament in June next year.
But even if the French president manages to turn out, this episode is likely to commemorate the end of his "left or right" political proposal. It also raises serious doubts about his ability to pass laws on contradictory topics.
Joe Biden, the US
immigration crisis is one of the most annoying and longest internal problems for President Joe Biden. He came to office, promising to change his predecessor Donald Trump's policies and build a "just and humane" system, but saw that Congress did not support his plan of comprehensive immigration reform.
US President Joe Biden pauses during a speech in De-Moyn, Iowa, July 15, 2019 | Photo by Justin Sullivana / Getty Images
White House collided with a stream of migrants on the southern border of the country, a loaded decades of an existing system that is unable to cope with modern migration models.
On the eve of the presidential election next year, the Republicans were grabbing this issue. The leaders of the republican states filed lawsuits against the administration and sent buses with migrants to the Democrats. And in Washington, the Republicans tied a presidential foreign care package in Congress, which includes the financing of Ukraine and Israel, to radical changes in border policy, putting the White House in a difficult situation, since Baiden officials are negotiating immigration policy, which they once decide.
Political pressure spilled over to another pass. States and cities, especially those who lead Democrats, require Washington leaders to make more in terms of providing additional federal assistance and viewing policy on the southern borders to limit the flow of asylum seekers to the United States.
Over the past one and a half years, more than 150,000 refugees arrived in New York, which has led to a reduction in the number of new police officers, reducing libraries' hours and restricting sanitary duties. Similar problems occur in cities such as Chicago, where migrants sleep in buses or police sites.
Democratic pressure exacerbates their relationship with the White House. New York Mayor Eric Adams is managing the largest city in the country, but did not talk to Biden for almost a year. "We just need help and we don't get it," Adams told reporters on Tuesday.
Olaf Scholt, Germany
Migration has been a prominent place on the political agenda of Germany for several months, and the number of applications for asylum has increased to the highest level of 2015 refugee crisis caused by the civil war in Syria.
The latter influx of refugees has become a serious challenge for both national and local authorities trying to find housing and other migrants, not to mention the necessary funds.
The inability to limit the number of refugees has put German Chancellor Olaf Solz at huge pressure | Michele Tantussi/Getty Images
inability to limit the number of refugees in the country, which is one of the most desirable for seekers of shelter, put German Chancellor Olaf Solz at huge pressure. In the hope of stopping refugees, Germany has recently resumed border control with Poland, the Czech Republic and Switzerland, hoping to return the refugees back before they get to the German land.
Even with border control, the number of refugees remains high, which has become a find for far -right. The German Anti -Imigrant Party "Alternative for Germany" has reached record support in national polls.
After she overtook the Social Democrats of Scholtz in June, ADN increased its advantage, gaining 22% of recent polls, second only to the Cross-Cross Christian Democrats.
ADN will be expected to win the three lands in September next year in the east of Germany, where the support of the party and its reactionary anti -foreign policy is particularly strong.
Positrists, meanwhile, strengthen their position on migration and abandon open borders policy, which was defended by the former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Among the new priorities is the plan of imitation of the British model of Rwanda for refugee processing in third countries.
Carl Nezammer, Austria,
like Scholz, the rating of the Austrian leader fell sharply due to migration concerns. Austria has taken steps to strengthen control at its southern and eastern borders.
Although this tactic has led to a decrease in the number of shelter seekers, it also means that Austria has actually suspended the action of a visa -free EU travel regime, which has been a blessed regional economy for decades.
Austria has actually suspended the regime of visa -free trips of the EU, which for decades have been a good for a regional economy | Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images
Freedom The Liberty Party has been leading in the elections for over a year, ahead of the ruling centering party by 10 points by surveys. This gives the parties the opportunity to win the national elections planned for the next fall, which will mean an unprecedented roll to the right in the country, which has been dominated by the Center since the Second World War.
George Meloni, Italy,
Italy Prime Minister George Meloni made a name in the opposition, conducting a pre-election campaign on a radical far-right program. After victory in last year's elections, she switched to more moderate positions on Ukraine and Europe.
Now melon is to reassure your electorate for migration - a topic that has dominated Italian debates for years. However, instead, she was forced to provide visas to hundreds of thousands of legal migrants to cover the labor deficit. The situation is complicated by the fact that the number of landing on the shore in Italy has increased by about 50 percent compared to last year, despite some loud statements and agreements aimed at stopping the arrival of migrants.
Although Meloni ordered the construction of retention centers where migrants would be held in anticipation of repatriation, in reality, local conditions in African countries and the lack of repatriation agreements create serious obstacles.
Italy Prime Minister Georgia Meloni at a press conference on March 9, 2023 | Tiziana Fabi/AFP Via Getty Images,
although it has enlisted the support of the President of the European Commission Ursula von Der Lyen, the potential naval mission of the EU to block away from Africa risks breaking international law.
Meloni tried other options, including an agreement with Tunisia to help stop migrant smuggling, but this plan collapsed before it began. The Albania Agreement on the Offshoryization of some migrant maintenance centers has also faced problems.
Now Meloni was in a difficult position. The migration issue led it to conflict with France and Germany because it is trying to create a reputation of a moderate conservative.
If she fails to deal with this issue, she is likely to lose political support. Her coalition partner Matteo Salvini is known as a supporter of rigid policy on migration, and although they are now officially allies, they will later become rivals again.
Gert Wilders, the Netherlands,
the Government of the Perennial Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte was overthrown in July migration, after which he announced his departure from politics. In the next elections, in which different parties competed for the place of Rutte, the far -right fairbrand, Gert Wilders won a shocking victory. On the election night, he promised to curb the tsunami shelter.
Now Wilders is seeking to create a centeric coalition with three other parties that have called for migration under control. One of them is the old group of Rutte, which is now headed by Dylan Eshilgoz.
GER Wilders at a meeting in the Netherlands Parliament with parties to discuss the formation of a coalition government, November 24, 2023 | Carl Court/Getty Images
former Refuge, Eshilgoz made migration one of the main topics of her election campaign. After the election, she was criticized for paving the Wilders's way to victory - not only focusing on migration, but also opening the door to potential government with Wilders.
However, the coalition negotiations have come to a dead end, and months can take the formation of a new office. If Wilders, who clearly has a mandate from voters, will be able to unite the coalition, the political trajectory of the Netherlands, which is usually called a pragmatic nation, will significantly shift to the right. The suppression of migration is as undoubted as it is possible.
Leo Varadkar, Ireland
, even in Ireland, an economically open country that has long been accustomed to exporting its citizens around the world, a friendly immigrant and a probability government was forced to introduce new measures to curb migration that would be unimaginable a year ago.
The rigidity of Irish policy reflects both a chronic housing crisis and the growing reluctance of some real estate owners to continue to provide a state -funded asylum in emergency situations after November riots in Dublin, caused by knife wounds caused by immigrant from North Africa.
Ireland, which has already accepted more than 100,000 newcomers, mostly from Ukraine, stopped guaranteeing housing to new asylum seekers, if they are unmarried men, mainly from Nigeria, Algeria, Afghanistan, Georgia and Somalia, according to the latest statistics of the Department of Integration.
Ireland has ceased to guarantee housing for new shelter seekers, if they are single men, mainly from Nigeria, Algeria, Afghanistan, Georgia and Somalia | Jorge Guerrero/AFP Via Getty Images
even newly arrived family faces with increasing risk of keeping in military -type tents, despite winter temperature.
Ukrainians who have received much more social support from Russia since Russia's invasion of Russia in 2022 than other refugees will see that this greeting rug will be partially abolished in a law, approved by the three-party Coalition Government of Prime Minister Leo Varadar this week.
Following the adoption of Parliament next month, the law will limit the stay of new Ukrainian refugees in public housing for three months, and social payments, which are now one of the most common in Europe for people who run away from war in Russia, will be reduced for all those who are in public housing.
Justin Trudeau, Canada
pessimistic moods of the public caused by the fall in the cost of life, made immigration by multidimensional challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The housing crisis, which is felt throughout the country, has cooled the support of immigration, and people are looking for domestic seizures to solve housing availability problems. The situation nourishes antipathy to the hold and its election campaign.
Trude regarded immigration as a multi -purpose solution for the aging population of Canada and the slow economy. Although today's record growth of the population is well reflecting the reputation of Canada as the desired place to move, the political challenges related to migration have arisen unpredictable for liberals Trudeau.
Migration -related political challenges have arisen before the liberals of Trudeau in an unpredictable way Andriy Ivanov/AFP
has come to power eight years ago, at least 1.3 million people, mainly from India, Philippines, China and Syria, were immigrated to Canada. Diaspora policy - and foreign intervention - has become more responsible, as evidenced by the Trudeau conflict with India and the recent break of Canada with Israel.
Canada will double its 40 million population in 25 years, if the current growth rate is preserved, which will increase political challenges in the management of a country, which Trudeau calls "the first post-national state in the world."
Pedro Sanchez, Spain
Spanish Autonomous Cities of Seuta and Melile, in North Africa, are favorite for migrants who seek to get to Europe from the south: after crossing the land border to the continent, you can easily reach the ferry.
Transit through the land border separating the European territory from Morocco is usually controlled by security measures such as high barbed wire fences, and border control officers work together to prevent illegal migrants from entering.
Spanish autonomous cities of Seuta and Melic in northern Africa are popular with migrants who seek to get to Europe | Pierre-Philip Mark/AFP
, but in recent years, Vlad Morocco expressed dissatisfaction with her Spanish colleagues, withdrawing their officers and missing hundreds of migrants, overwhelming border stations and forcing Spanish officers to repel migrants, causing dozens of people.
It is believed that the headache caused by these incidents has become a major factor that influenced the decision of the Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to change the position of the Spanish government on the disputed territory of Western Sahara and to support the Rabat plan to officially arrange a nearly 50-year occupation of the territory.
Such a turn aroused the left -wing allies of Sanchez and worsened Spain's relations with Algeria, the ancient champion of the independence of Western Sahara. But these measures stopped the flow of migrants - so far.
Kiriakos Michotakis, Greece
Greece has been in the leading European migration crisis since 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people have been in Europe through the Aegean Islands. Migration and border security have become key issues of political debate in the country.
Human rights organizations, as well as the European Parliament and the European Commission, have accused the Greek conservative government of Kiriakos Michotakis of illegally “ejection” of migrants who got into the Greek territory and in the deportation of migrants without proper legal procedure. The Greek government denies these accusations, claiming that independent investigations have found no evidence.
Michotakis insists that Greece adheres to a "rigid but fair" policy, but numerous in -depth investigations refute the moderate image that the conservative leader wants to preserve.
Human rights organizations, as well as the European Parliament and the European Commission, have accused the Greek government of illegally “repulsion” of migrants John Thys/AFP Via Getty Images
in June in the Mediterranean, sank a boat with migrants, which some called "the worst tragedy in history." Hundreds of people were killed by drawing Europe's attention to this problem. According to Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, the official investigation has not yet found out whether the Greek authorities have led to a shipwreck.
Meanwhile, Greece desperately needs thousands of workers to support the undergraduate agricultural, tourist and construction sectors of the country. Despite the promises of ministers of migration and agriculture on the rapid adoption of legislation, which would attract migrants to solve the problem of labor shortages, the government was forced to retreat under pressure from the inside of its own ranks.
Nicos Christodulida, Cyprus
is preparing to increase the number of migrants arriving at its shores against the background of restoring the conflict in the Middle East. Earlier in December, Greece sent humanitarian aid to the island to cope with the expected increase in migrant flows.
Cyprus President Nicos Hristodulidis urged the EU to provide additional funding for migration management and fights a splash of violence against migrants in Cyprus. Analysts accuse this xenophobia, which has become a mainstream in Cyprus and media, as well as inefficient management of migration flows from the state. Last year, the highest proportion of persons who first applied for asylum was recorded in the country in relation to the total population.
Cyprus President Nicos Hristodulidae called the EU to provide additional funding for migration management | Louis Marin/AFP Due to Getty Images,
legal and personnel problems have delayed the efforts to create the Deputy Minister for Migration, which is considered an important step in helping Cyprus to cope with the splash of migrant arrival.
The geographical location of the island - it is near Lebanon and Turkey - makes it the main purpose for migrants who want to get into the EU from the Middle East. The complex history of a separated country also complicates the regulation of migrant inflows.
