During the period of hostilities that continue in Ukraine, an acute discourse on the upcoming presidential election has engulfed the public sphere, despite the government's efforts to silence this topic. It is well known that at such times the strategic competence and reform actions of the Ukrainian government are the subject of close observation.
During this period, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally interferes with this complex process and even sometimes manages it, arguing that current turbulence in society with respect to his presidential legitimacy after May 20 is a consequence of the Kremlin's intervention. This has the basis, but there are some subjective aspects that should be considered in more detail.
On May 20, according to the Constitution of Ukraine, a legitimate five -year term, which began with the inauguration of Vladimir Zelensky as a president. If not a military conflict, the elections should take place on March 31.
It is fair to note that in peacetime, the question of the second term of the President and his team would raise tension. Government officials would probably have a choice: to focus every effort on the next campaign or try to stay in government positions, avoiding public attention.
Given that the Constitution of Ukraine prohibits elections during the war, the question arises: how to preserve the legitimacy in power and abroad, without raising doubts about his authority?
Some politicians and experts believe that they need to apply to the Constitutional Court of Ukraine for clarification, others see the decision in creating a national unity government, and others urge President Zelensky himself to dismiss their position. Russian propaganda also actively uses this situation for their purposes.
Proponents of the continuation of the powers of Vladimir Zelensky without moral doubt refer to the Law of Ukraine “Legal Martial Status”, which establishes a ban on holding any elections.
Speaker of Parliament, Doctor of Law and Academician Ruslan Stefanchuk, in an interview for "public", emphasizes that Article 8 of the Constitution is imperatively envisaged: the President of Ukraine performs duties until the next president joins. It is the basis of continuity of power.
At the same time, it is noted that Article 103 of the Constitution directly defines the term of election of the President for 5 years and emphasizes the need for regular elections. This is the basic principle of democracy and guarantee of continuity of state power.
However, it is also necessary to take into account the principle of pluralism, which excludes the monopoly of power by one person or party.
According to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Article 108 of the Constitution can create preconditions for the formation of a certain type of monarchy where the elections are not held, and the President exercises powers without restrictions. Stefanchuk emphasizes that this topic is overwhelmed by the enemy, including Russia, and it can have serious consequences.
The chairman of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine Alexei Koshel expresses that after May 20, the President remains absolutely legitimate.
"The Constitution clearly provides for the impossibility of holding parliamentary elections during martial law. This logic extends to other articles," - notes Alexei Koshel. "The question of the legitimacy of the President arose through attempts to organize elections in October-November last year. Over the past six months, no representative of the authorities mentioned that the election was forbidden by the Constitution. Fedor Venislavsky was the only one who stated that the Constitution was forbidden.
One of the aspects of democracy in Ukraine, which is important for the West, is the presidential election. It is insisted that the election is an important part of democracy, because peaceful transfer of power is one of its most important components.
Last year, when asked by some US politicians about holding elections in Ukraine, despite its martial law, Zelensky noted that this requires changes to the legislation, ensure funding and guarantee the security of voters and military during conflict voting.
Experienced former high-ranking officials, including Hero of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Hryhoriy Omelchenko, tried to help the President's office by offering legal instruments, but have not received answers.
“The Constitution stipulates that in the event of the expiration of the Verkhovna Rada during the military or emergency, its powers shall be automatically continued until the first meeting of the first session of the Verkhovna Rada, elected after the abolition of such a state (in accordance with Article 83 of the Constitution).
However, such an opportunity is not provided for the President of Ukraine. It is not a legal gap, but the protection against usurpation of power by the President. According to the Constitution, it is impossible to change the Constitution in the context of martial law or state of emergency (under Article 157). How to resolve the contradictions between Articles 103 and 108 of the Constitution to avoid doubts about the legitimacy of the President of Ukraine at the international level?
The answer is simple: either the President of Zelensky, or not less than 45 MPs, must apply to the Constitutional Court to provide official interpretation of Articles 103 and 108 of the Basic Law of the country.
In case of failure to comply with these decisions, if Zelensky continues its powers, its actions may be qualified as a crime provided for in Article 109 of the Criminal Code (seizure of state power), which is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 5 to 10 years with confiscation of property.
"No one in Ukraine has the right to usurp state power" (according to Article 5 of the Constitution), " - emphasizes in the appeal to the President's office.
Thus, in numerous discussions on the problem of the legitimacy of President Vladimir Zelensky, after May 20, former high-ranking officials, such as Hero of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Hryhoriy Omelchenko, believe that all contradictions can only be resolved by the Constitutional Court. If the court does not make the relevant conclusion and confirm Zelensky's right to fulfill the duties of the President during martial law and until the end of the war with Russia, this topic will remain relevant and speculative.
However, there is a problem with the Constitutional Court, since it currently consists of only 13 of 18 judges, and the appointment of the rest of the judges is delayed. It takes 10 votes to make a decision in the Constitutional Court, and this may be problematic. In addition, most judges were appointed during the previous cadence of President Petro Poroshenko, which may affect the political aspects of the hypothetical decision.
It is dangerous to deny the legitimacy of President Zelensky, as this can lead to a catastrophic political crisis. For this reason, it is proposed to organize public measures with the participation of constitutional law experts and former judges of the Constitutional Court, which will provide professional explanations for removing doubts about the legitimacy of the President. You can also conclude a pact between the authorities and the opposition or sign a document that defines an agreed position on this issue.
Ukraine is already in a complex intra-political situation, where the Cabinet of Ministers has actually ceased to exist as an independent entity, and parliament rejects the majority of government laws. Adding to this problem the legitimacy of the President, the country may approach the catastrophic political crisis.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his belief that discussing his legitimacy as a guarantor of the Constitution after May 20, 2024 has a connection with the Kremlin, which initiates this campaign.
The Ukrainian leader noted that French President Emmanuel Macron plans to visit Ukraine first of the Great Seven countries (G7), and at this point he can be asked about his attitude to the legitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky after May.
According to the Ukrainian President, some G7 leaders mentioned the names of those who raise the topic in Ukraine.
"This is a specific program - there are documents that confirm this: it is a program of the Russian Federation. I know that some journalists of the United States also have these documents. They even indicate the amounts provided for different institutions to support this topic. I will not say who. I saw," - said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
This topic of illegitimacy may apply to any president, regardless of his behalf. It is likely that Russia will actively consider this issue in the spring.
Given the experience of Russia in manipulations at the world level, attracting attention to contradictory topics and the study of social moods can have different consequences.
Ukrainian sociologists conducted a survey on the opinions of Ukrainians about the need for presidential re -election now or whether Zelensky will remain in power until the end of the war.
70% of respondents said that re -election is not needed now, and the President should continue to perform his duties until the war is over.
For Zelensky it is a positive signal. However, given the reduction of trust in it, there is a risk of further reduction of this indicator.
Despite this, the probability of a significant fall in the legitimacy of the president is considered small.
Polls also indicate that Ukrainian society has an internal mechanism for detecting misinformation and does not want to be provoked by the Kremlin.
Therefore, the main force of resistance to Russian aggression remains the unity, cohesion and community of actions of the whole Ukrainian people.
However, the authorities, unfortunately, remains separated from their people, acting on the internal principles and rules that have little to take into account the position of society. This power is counting on the support of society in the conditions of war, not paying attention to his opinion.
Although President Zelensky has some support and sympathy among the population, but his voters know about his basic intentions for their fate, the question is open.
For a long time, Ukrainian leaders have made decisions on closed doors, and there is still no complete information about many of these decisions. There is also no responsibility for these decisions that had a great impact on the country's future.
Zelensky declares his purpose of liberation of Ukraine within its borders in 1991, but it is important that it operates as openly as possible and remains the center of defense and liberation of Ukraine.
However, he has now inherited problems from previous governments, including corruption, the influence of oligarchs, the opacity of government, Russia's agent activity, and others.
Therefore, it is extremely important to develop a single legal formula for the legitimacy of the head of state after its term.
