The National Bank of Ukraine decided to leave the discount rate unchanged - at the level of 15.5% per annum. As noted in the official message of the regulator, such a decision should contribute to the stability of the foreign exchange market, the restraint of inflation expectations and the gradual reduction of inflation to the target level by 5%.
The regulator emphasizes that the decision is made taking into account the growing uncertainty in the economic environment. In the event of a change in the balance sheet of the NBU is ready to respond promptly. Among the possible actions are both further holding at the current level and additional measures to strengthen monetary policy.
The National Bank's forecast provides that the discount rate will remain at 15.5% for the next months. The cycle of its reduction will be restored only after overcoming the peak of inflation pressure and reducing the risk of its fixing at a high level.
According to updated forecasts, in the fourth quarter of this year, the average discount rate is expected at 14%, while earlier it was expected that it would decrease to 13.1%. The forecast for the third quarter was also adjusted from 14.5% to 15.4%.
In the long run, the National Bank expects a gradual reduction of the discount rate: in the first quarter of 2026 - up to 13%, in the second - up to 12.5%, and by the end of the year - up to 11.6%per annum.
The decision to maintain the rate is a signal to the market for the NBU's intention and continue to maintain price stability, especially in conditions of increased external volatility.
