Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming elections can be a serious challenge for the German economy. According to the latest reports, including the study of the German Economic Institute of IW, Trump is planned for total import tariffs of 10% to 20%, as well as 60% or more on goods from China, can significantly affect Germany's economic performance and eurozones.
According to the forecasts, if Trump introduces 20%tariffs for the European Union and the EU in response introduces similar measures, Eurozone GDP can be reduced by 1.3%in 2027 and 2028, and in Germany it will fall 1.5%. It is noted that the negative impact on the EU economy will intensify between 2025 and 2028, while the US priority consequences will be noticeable in the first two years: the fall of GDP in 2025 will be 1.3% at rates of 10% and 1.5% at 20% rates.
Some sectors of the German economy can suffer particularly serious losses. For example, exports of German cars to the United States can fall by 32%and pharmaceutical products by 35%. The total amount of German exports to the United States can be reduced by 14.9% due to the introduction of new tariffs.
These forecasts emphasize the severity of the potential threat that trade wars, which are unleashed by the Trump administration, not only for Germany, but for the entire European economic space.
