Donald Trump's refusal of a truce in favor of a cynical combination of the continuation of Russian offensive in Ukraine with empty negotiations between Ukraine and Putin Russia puts Ukraine in an extremely dangerous situation. Trump left Ukraine face-to-face with the aggressor, hoping that by the beginning of 2026 Putin would either defeat the Ukrainian army or force the office of President Zelensky and the war of the population to surrender to avoid further suffering.
If Russia is able to have a successful offensive in the depths of Ukraine, Putin will be able to try a new micro special operation - probably in the countries of Scandinavia, Balticia or on the Finnish Front to connect Belarus with the Kaliningrad region. An acute problem for the Kremlin is a gradual loss of control over the Baltic Sea. While Putin is trying to break into Europe through Ukraine, he runs the risk of losing the only favorable maritime route for his oil datum, which is increasingly controlled by NATO countries. Putin is forced to choose: it is more important for him to seize an additional 100 km of Ukrainian land by the end of the summer of 2025, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives, or to carry out a fast military provocation against the Baltic States or Finland, undermining the unity of NATO. Thus, Trump actually provided Putin for six months to compulsory Ukraine to surrender and opened the way to the Kremlin's possible military provocations against NATO countries. If this strategy fails, the United States, through the will of Congress, will again increase the support of Kiev, which can radically change the course of war in favor of Ukraine.
But these six months - 2025 - will be the most dangerous period for Ukraine, the armed forces and the civil population. If Ukraine stands, the support of the event will recover, and in the event of defeat Trump, as usual, will quickly join the winner. It is not a US state strategy, but this style of management is characteristic of Trump.
