Political scientist Andrii Myselyuk notes that China is showing a willingness to reconsider its role as a critical outside observer of Ukraine and its Western partners' attempts to find ways to end the war, which Beijing calls the "Crisis in Ukraine."
"Instead of detached observation with elements of clearly calculated moderate sabotage, as was the case during the organization and holding of the first Peace Summit in Switzerland in June, Beijing is now deciding whether to try to consolidate its reputation as a successful global mediator in the Ukrainian direction," Myselyuk writes.
China gained this reputation after successful efforts to reconcile Iran and Saudi Arabia. Chinese President Xi Jinping is very interested in continuing to be perceived, particularly in the so-called "Global South," as a country capable of bringing the reconciliation process between warring countries to a successful conclusion. Therefore, in the Celestial Empire, they want to find out whether the moment has come to claim the continuation of this success story in mediation between Ukraine and Russia.
China invited the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba for several days of negotiations in Beijing. This is an important step, since for almost 2.5 years of war, direct contacts between official Beijing and Kyiv have been limited to a phone call from Xi Jinping to President Zelensky. "Clarification of the position of official Kyiv, received directly from the head of the Ukrainian foreign policy department for Beijing, is important, but only an element in the composition of the large-scale puzzle "How China will act in the fall of this year to end the "Ukrainian crisis"", Myselyuk notes.
Why did China not intensify its efforts to resolve the conflict during the first Peace Summit in Switzerland? To answer this question, Myselyuk explains the scale of Chinese plans regarding the main forces involved in Russia's war against Ukraine. "It is necessary to stop trying to stick the label of "pro-Russianness" on China, as well as the search for an answer to the question - how to make China "pro-Ukrainian" and incline it to our side," he writes. China is playing its own calculated and very large-scale game, the goal of which is to reformat the rules of the world order.
To achieve this goal, Beijing currently supports the Russian Federation's efforts to destroy the existing rules of the world order. However, China is not pro-Russian. "He is not interested in the complete victory of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and the significant strengthening of Russia, which is currently critically dependent on China's support. And he is also not interested in a serious defeat of the Russian Federation and a victory of Ukraine - because the latter will mean the victory of the USA and the collective West," Myselyuk emphasizes. Also, China is not interested in a crushing defeat of Ukraine, because it will strengthen Moscow's imperialist ambitions.
Other factors pushing Xi Jinping to act in the Ukrainian direction include Putin's dangerous "shuri-mura" with Kim Jong-un, the risks of aggravation of relations with the United States in the event of Trump's election as president, the desire to restore supply chains and improve relations with the EU.
China is also considering its participation in the second Peace Summit. "China is considering its participation in the organization of the second Peace Summit. Because in the plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, which the head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Wang Yi, and the chief adviser to the Brazilian president, Celso Amorim, agreed two months ago, the need to hold peace talks at the "right moment" is recorded, Myselyuk said.
Thus, China can participate in the second Peace Summit, provided that it is "requested with due respect" and is one of the three main organizers of the event, along with the United States and the European Union. This will allow Beijing to continue its role as a global mediator and influence the formation of new rules of the world order.
