When the year of unexpected global warming has come to an end, a record high average annual temperature was already provided. Now some scientists are already assuming: 2024 may be even more hot.
In the end, most of the Earth's oceans were record warm for most of 2023, and they would take as many months to release this warmth. The intensive episode of the climatic regime of El-Ninho, which heats the planet, is approaching its peak, and the last time happened, which pushed the planet to the record heat in 2016.
This indicates that there will be no inevitable slowdown in the splash of global heat, which increased the ten -year trend associated with fossil fuel emissions.
According to the British Mete Department, this may be enough to raise the average temperature on the planet for the first time by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre -industrial level of the 19th century. In recent months, the planet has ever approached this terrible threshold, opening the first flash of the world, where a long level of heat will cause new extreme weather conditions.
El-ninho usually lasts a year or less, reaching the peak in the winter months, and then fading in the spring. Although scientists say that there are no two exactly the same events of El-Ninho, each of them brings some predictability into global climatic models, as few other planetary phenomena.
The current El-Ninho, which began in June, is considered strong and can reach a peak as a historically powerful episode in the coming weeks or months. It can be on a level with the strong El-Ninho, which began in early 2015, reached a peak in December and faded in June 2016, on the way to the growth of global heat in 2016.
If this pattern is true this time, it may mean that a record heat stored for the last six months will rise even higher in the first half of 2024.
Kevin Tracbert, a climatologist from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said in an email: "This prepares the preconditions for higher than usual, the temperatures above land," - he may reach the peak in about February. "I expect it to be at least the first 6 months of 2024."
In addition, it is unclear whether neutral conditions will remain, whether La-Ninia will occur, known for its cooling on the planet. El-Ninho can even return.
There is no clear hint of what can be ahead. Although this el-ninho developed to some extent according to the understanding of this phenomenon by scientists of textbooks, it was difficult to classify. According to Trenbert, some changes in models that climatologists usually expect to see during the recession of El-Nino have not yet taken place.
