In the coming months, the world may face events that are difficult to predict, but their consequences can be significant. Economist Yaroslav Romanchuk proposes to consider possible "black swans"-unpredictable and rare events that can dramatically change the economic landscape in 2024-2025.
In the month remaining this year and during the next, the world may be shocked, which cannot be predicted. Economist Yaroslav Romanchuk only tries to outline the directions in which these "black swans" can take place. "Black Swans" as the birth of a great state: Top 10 possible "black swans" for 2024-2025
"Black Swans"-this is not about ornithology, not about Satanic rituals. It is an event or series of events, date, intensity, duration and consequences of which cannot be predicted very or very difficult. Hypothetical such an event can happen, but rarely. This requires a unique coincidence of circumstances, actions of the discMakers.
The event or phenomenon of "black swan" has serious consequences for economic entities. It convincingly proves the difference of information to Homo Agens (a person of acting) ex ante (before the action) and ex post (after committing). After the arrival of the Black Swan, you can trace the cause and effect relationships that have led to it. However, these relationships and relationships are hidden in the information, event "white chew", which represents the broad multivariate of the future.
Today, the Black Swan in the world economy is like a goal in football. There are many factors, circumstances, decisions, trends that can become a nest of the departure of the "black swan", especially if the motivation, contradiction or perception of threat/risks is intensified, the influential, strong, resource -makers. Who, what, when and how they are influenced, no one knows. They are "black swans" - but it seems to me that the goal is rising.
Here are the top 10 "black swans" that can have a very big negative impact on the state of the world economy. Of course, not everyone, even within the same country, but their influence on such parameters as GDP, export/import, demand for raw materials, investment, the price of money, saving savings, profitability of investments, the cost of living will be significant.
It is worth paying attention to one very important aspect. Who is the source of the lion's share of "black swans", the state or the free market? Who releases more "black swans" in the world economy, the official with his decisions, actions or entrepreneur within his commercial projects? Taking into account the amount of destruction from "black swans" in the economy, it is necessary to finally abandon the far -fetched concept of "market failures", and begin to study deeply to study the reality of "failures of the state".
If people were not conducted on the utopia of safety, well -being and justice from the hands of the state, if they had escaped from mental traps of Marxism and saw the benefits of voluntary cooperation and partnership within private property and division of labor, then the risks of the appearance of "black swans" would be incomparably lower.
So, the top 10 "black swans" of the world economy for 2024-2025 is:
The actions of the beneficiaries of the US stockpiece, which may take advantage of the political crisis and/or provoke it, including defaults of financial institutions. The catalysts and triggers of this "black swan"-the actions of VIP-commissioners and consumers of someone else, that is, the state.
China's collapse (real estate, banks, unemployment through the closure of the ghost business). A typical failure of a state that was actively engaged in manual management of the economy and at the exit received structural, systemic problems.
The actions of oil barons of Arab countries and the United States (a sharp increase in oil production). The lion's share of oil resources is in the hands of the state.
A sharp increase in interest rates by central banks G7. Again, the state as a monopoly issuer of a legal payment. She turned real money into monetary wrappers. A bright, insidious, destructive failure of the state.
China's war against Taiwan. Obviously, wars are leading states, declaring politicians, not private businessmen. Every military aggression is at the conscience of the state.
The Great War of Israel against his enemies in the region. The aggressive, genocidal policy of Iran, other states of the region to liquidate Israel is a vivid failure of the state.
The use of nuclear weapons by Russia. Another madness of the state.
India's war with someone of their external enemies. The state fights for land, territory, influence. VIP-managers do not think about the price of their actions, but about the realization of their personal goals-at the expense of others, lives, health and resources.
Mass defaults of Africa, other developing countries that have accumulated over $ 1.5 trillion debt. A typical example of how developed states planted in debt pits. At the same time, with defaults and poverty 1-3% of VIP-managers will earn, and the rest ... The remaining 97% should be aware that it is a failure of the state, not a private market.
New serious epidemic in the world. Epidemics are different, but when one of the countries creates a state laboratory, experiments there with viruses, and then, when the epidemic begins, destroys all the traces, there is every reason to believe that the main reason was the state itself. However, it should be noted that viruses can mutate and spread without the participation of VIP-commissioners and consumers of someone else's. The main thing is that the state is not a customer of high -rise projects in this area with very dubious parameters and unclear ways of managing risks.
Yes, private companies can also be mistaken, can also be bankrupt by generating unemployment, debts and "dead" capital. However, only the state has tools for coordination and synchronization of a variety of markets around the world so that, in the end, sources of strong tension are formed from which the "black swans" depart.
