Despite the threatening rhetoric, the United States is not preparing for the Third World War.
This is evidenced by the federal budget.
On October 1, the budget year of 2022/2023 ended (in the USA, the date of closing of the budgeting is not December but the beginning of October).
Let's analyze the budget indicators of America.
The federal budget expenditures amounted to $ 6,34 billion or 24% of GDP if you take the gross product level in 2022.
The amount of income is $ 4,439 billion.
Thus, the budget deficit reached $ 1.7 trillion. or 6.7% of GDP.
America continues to be in the Great Deficiency Matrix. This is when the budget gap exceeds 5% of GDP.
In the structure of income, tax payments of individuals prevail. The population is essentially a "budget visa" on its own.
If you take income tax ($ 2.2 trillion) and social insurance payments ($ 1.6 trillion), we will receive 85% of budget revenues !!!
It is now clear why Americans are so meticulously analyzing their government's costs, including the help of other countries.
The corporate income tax was less than $ 10% or $ 420 billion.
Customs and excise duties gave only $ 80 and $ 76 billion, respectively (in parts it is 1.8% and 1.7%).
Traditional inheritance tax is only 34 billion (less than 0.01%).
The deficit can be reduced either by rising income (tax increase) or by reducing costs. Or a combination of these factors.
But as we can see, to increase tax payments to anyone, and to expand the tax base - nowhere.
Moreover, in the next, elected year.
And what about costs?
You are probably surprised, but the US is also a social state.
Thus, the citadel of liberalism, the free market and the spirit of entrepreneurship, it spends most of the federal budget on social programs.
I understand that we were taught to another, but the reality as a result of the dope of our illusions is not less real.
If you take social security expenditures ($ 1.35), medicine (889 billion), health insurance of persons older than 65 years (848 billion), unemployment benefits ($ 774 billion) and veterans expenditures ($ 302 billion), which will have more than 67.4%.
With a major lag from the Socialka, there are defense costs ($ 821 billion).
This, by the way, is only 3.2% of GDP, that is, even less than the normative deductions we have on the eve of a full -scale war.
By the way, defense costs are some of the most "low" when compared to other expenses of the federal budget in recent years.
Interesting detail - the net interest costs on the US debt in the United States have increased to a record $ 659 billion, closer to the defense budget parameters.
227 billion dollars were spent on infrastructure, transport and incentives for economy development.
Let's make a small indentation.
It is often possible to hear that US assistance to Ukraine has a small share in the structure of budget expenditures of America and is therefore not difficult for the US administration.
Is such a statement objective?
And so, and no.
If we take in the total cost structure, $ 60 billion in Ukraine is less than 0.1%.
But if you compare the amount of assistance with the cost of education, infrastructure, economy and transport, the ratio will no longer look so insignificant.
By the way, from the end of the end, the completed budget excluded subsidies for writing off loans taken by Americans for higher education.
The money in the treasury is not enough for all programs declared by Biden.
From the whole list of costs, it is possible to dramatically reduce only the cost of servicing the government debt, but for this it is necessary to reduce the base rate of the Fed at times.
But there is no opportunity for this - inflation.
Reducing the base rate is also necessary for the formation of long -term economic growth factors.
One of the key drivers here is the mortgage.
For the development of a mortgage it is necessary to create conditions under which the purchase of housing on credit is more profitable than its rent.
Now the situation is diametrically opposite-the rent by 30-40% is more profitable than the mortgage, the rates of which have exceeded 7.5%.
Starting a mortgage is one of the growth drivers in the economy and in the financial markets.
At the same time, the high inflation period opens up for the United States the opportunity to "burn" its debt in inflationary fire.
This is real when GDP deflator is higher than the nominal increase in debt - in this case, the ratio of debt to the gross product is reduced.
But in order to take such a unique historical chance - it is necessary to dramatically reduce the budget deficit.
After all, new debts will have to be attracted to cover the budget deficit.
In this case, if the deficit is too large, the increase of new debts to cover the deficit will outstrip the "burning" of old debts in the pot of inflation.
Thus, in the current paradigm, America needs to be attracted annually to cover their internal imbalances to $ 2 trillion, increasing the debt bar.
Where to get this money?
The Fed will no longer give them, because the previous waves of expansion of liquidity during the financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic disrupted the "carving" from inflation.
Instead of quantitative policies
This is evidenced by the federal budget.
On October 1, the budget year of 2022/2023 ended (in the USA, the date of closing of the budgeting is not December but the beginning of October).
Let's analyze the budget indicators of America.
The federal budget expenditures amounted to $ 6,34 billion or 24% of GDP if you take the gross product level in 2022.
The amount of income is $ 4,439 billion.
Thus, the budget deficit reached $ 1.7 trillion. or 6.7% of GDP.
America continues to be in the Great Deficiency Matrix. This is when the budget gap exceeds 5% of GDP.
In the structure of income, tax payments of individuals prevail. The population is essentially a "budget visa" on its own.
If you take income tax ($ 2.2 trillion) and social insurance payments ($ 1.6 trillion), we will receive 85% of budget revenues !!!
It is now clear why Americans are so meticulously analyzing their government's costs, including the help of other countries.
The corporate income tax was less than $ 10% or $ 420 billion.
Customs and excise duties gave only $ 80 and $ 76 billion, respectively (in parts it is 1.8% and 1.7%).
Traditional inheritance tax is only 34 billion (less than 0.01%).
The deficit can be reduced either by rising income (tax increase) or by reducing costs. Or a combination of these factors.
But as we can see, to increase tax payments to anyone, and to expand the tax base - nowhere.
Moreover, in the next, elected year.
And what about costs?
You are probably surprised, but the US is also a social state.
Thus, the citadel of liberalism, the free market and the spirit of entrepreneurship, it spends most of the federal budget on social programs.
I understand that we were taught to another, but the reality as a result of the dope of our illusions is not less real.
If you take social security expenditures ($ 1.35), medicine (889 billion), health insurance of persons older than 65 years (848 billion), unemployment benefits ($ 774 billion) and veterans expenditures ($ 302 billion), which will have more than 67.4%.
With a major lag from the Socialka, there are defense costs ($ 821 billion).
This, by the way, is only 3.2% of GDP, that is, even less than the normative deductions we have on the eve of a full -scale war.
By the way, defense costs are some of the most "low" when compared to other expenses of the federal budget in recent years.
Interesting detail - the net interest costs on the US debt in the United States have increased to a record $ 659 billion, closer to the defense budget parameters.
227 billion dollars were spent on infrastructure, transport and incentives for economy development.
Let's make a small indentation.
It is often possible to hear that US assistance to Ukraine has a small share in the structure of budget expenditures of America and is therefore not difficult for the US administration.
Is such a statement objective?
And so, and no.
If we take in the total cost structure, $ 60 billion in Ukraine is less than 0.1%.
But if you compare the amount of assistance with the cost of education, infrastructure, economy and transport, the ratio will no longer look so insignificant.
By the way, from the end of the end, the completed budget excluded subsidies for writing off loans taken by Americans for higher education.
The money in the treasury is not enough for all programs declared by Biden.
From the whole list of costs, it is possible to dramatically reduce only the cost of servicing the government debt, but for this it is necessary to reduce the base rate of the Fed at times.
But there is no opportunity for this - inflation.
Reducing the base rate is also necessary for the formation of long -term economic growth factors.
One of the key drivers here is the mortgage.
For the development of a mortgage it is necessary to create conditions under which the purchase of housing on credit is more profitable than its rent.
Now the situation is diametrically opposite-the rent by 30-40% is more profitable than the mortgage, the rates of which have exceeded 7.5%.
Starting a mortgage is one of the growth drivers in the economy and in the financial markets.
At the same time, the high inflation period opens up for the United States the opportunity to "burn" its debt in inflationary fire.
This is real when GDP deflator is higher than the nominal increase in debt - in this case, the ratio of debt to the gross product is reduced.
But in order to take such a unique historical chance - it is necessary to dramatically reduce the budget deficit.
After all, new debts will have to be attracted to cover the budget deficit.
In this case, if the deficit is too large, the increase of new debts to cover the deficit will outstrip the "burning" of old debts in the pot of inflation.
Thus, in the current paradigm, America needs to be attracted annually to cover their internal imbalances to $ 2 trillion, increasing the debt bar.
Where to get this money?
The Fed will no longer give them, because the previous waves of expansion of liquidity during the financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic disrupted the "carving" from inflation.
Instead of quantitative policies
