Ukrainian air defense may be in a crisis if Donald Trump, who is elected President of the United States, realizes his intentions to reduce or terminate military assistance to Ukraine. According to military observer David AKS in his analysis for Telegraph , the strongest element of the Ukrainian air defense - Patriot - can be in vain because of missile lacks.
Patriot anti-aircraft missile complexes (SPRs) have proven effective, in particular in the interception of Russian missiles such as Iskander and Dagger. However, according to AKS, the stock of missiles for these systems in Ukraine is limited, and their production is strictly controlled by the United States. Every year, about 1000 rockets for Patrioot are produced in the world, half of which are in the United States. Washington's permission will not be able to get these missiles even at its own expense.
The European anti-aircraft missile system SOL-Air Moyenne Portée/Terrestre (SAMP/T) is one of the few options that can potentially replace Patriot. But there are a number of problems here:
- Insufficient number of batteries. The Armed Forces currently has one SAMP/T battery, another is expected in the near future. It will take at least five additional batteries to replace all Patrioot.
- Limited resources of Europe. Italy has only three SAMP/T batteries and expects another 10, and France has eight old ones and ordered eight new new ones that will be ready in only two years.
- American export control. Even SAMP/T can use US components that are subject to US export restrictions.
David AKS notes that in the event of a reduction in military support from the United States, the issue of air defense will also become a European problem. European countries will not only increase their own efforts in the production of air defense, but also help Ukraine to protect their airspace.
