On the night of the Saturday, the Hezbolla group suffered significant losses after the murder of her leader Hassan Nasralla during the Israeli Air Force. This event can have serious consequences for the organization and the region as a whole, as Nasralla was not only a symbol of Hezbolla, but also a key figure in Lebanon's policy.
"He is not just a symbol, he is one who stood behind the strategic and military thinking of the group. Undoubtedly, his death will have serious consequences for him," says Zayna Khodr, a Beirut, a scout. The scale of Nasralla's influence goes far beyond Hezbolla, says BBC. Even his opponents in Israel and in the West recognize him as a prominent figure in the Middle East's politics.
The scale of the influence of Nasralla goes far beyond Hezbolla. Even his opponents in Israel and in the West recognize him as a prominent figure in the Middle East's politics.
Nasralla headed Hezbolla for 32 years, defining its policy and military strategy, strengthening it with Iran, but while maintaining some autonomy from Tehran.
It would be difficult to find an equivalent replacement in its ordinary times, and even more so, when the group of operations performed by Israel has lost many of its higher commanders, and the system of its internal security is significantly undermined.
"He was the glue that fastened a rapidly growing organization," says Mohanoad Hague Ali, a senior employee of the Middle East Center of the Carnegie Institute.
In his opinion, with the death of Nasralla will change the schedule at all levels - from the group itself to the entire anti -Israeli coalition under the auspices of Iran.
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Hasan Nasralla headed Hezbolla in 1992, after the death of his predecessor about Abbas Musawi, who died during the Israeli missile strike. Musaves were also considered indispensable, say some experts, such organizations are relatively easy to find a new leader who is long grown in a structure with the sight that he will be headed once.
In general, it usually happens, and the "Hezboli" will have a new leader. What the first step will be will largely depend on how quickly the grouping recovers on the loss of Nasralla.
Full demoralization will be the main problem in Hezbolla's ranks in the coming days, experts say.
Hasana Nasralla's death, who skillfully hid her location for a long time, demonstrated the military and intelligence advantage of Israel.
After a blow to Beirut, in which he died, Hezbolla has released several missiles towards Israel, it is likely that she was not broken, but according to analysts, the group understands that he had been struck.
"This is a full -scale war, and Israel uses this opportunity to eliminate the structure of leadership and destroy the Hezbollah infrastructure," says Favaz Herges, Professor of International Relations of the London School of Economics.
According to him, the influence of Hezbolla in the region after the death of Hassan Nasralla will decrease.
"This is a chess and mat! We will not weaken the pressure, we need to bring people back to their homes near the northern borders, where they escaped, throwing everything, and we are moving in this direction. But" Hezbollah "sooner or later can recover from the blow, and we must be ready,"-said the Israeli military.
Military potential and political future
The military potential of Hezbolla with the death of Hassan Nasralla is unlikely to suffer.
The capabilities of Nasrallah really kept on his personal connections in Iran and his authority in the eyes of Iranian sponsors.
But Tehran understands that his death is a serious blow to the scale of Iranian influence in Lebanon and on the strategic position of Iran in the Middle East as a whole.
Therefore, Iran is likely to be in a hurry to do everything on it to restore the status quo, and this will include military deliveries.
Photo, anadolu. In the last few years, the popularity of "Hezbollai" among Lebanese has fallen noticeably, but she still has many fans
Hezbolla is not only a radical paramilitary unit, but also a political party that has been part of Lebanon's governments since 2005 and is now holding 15 seats in parliament.
By 2022, a coalition with allies, which included another radical party Amal, had a parliamentary majority in Hezbolla, but it lost it against the background of a deep economic crisis in the country. Despite this, its political influence in the country is still great.
According to Israel and the West, Lebanon, in fact, was hostage to the radicals, and many Lebanese politicians also agree with this, openly calling the "Hezbolla" a terrorist organization. The Lebanese survey since 2019 also showed the growing dissatisfaction with the actions of "Hezbolla" - its involvement in corruption schemes, intimidation of the population and indulgence of a deep economic crisis.
The Lebanese Sunni and Christians may now try to weaken the weakened and confused Hezbolla from politics, but the mechanisms that could be used for this purpose are unclear.
A successor is possible
Photo, afp. Hash Safiddin at the funeral of a high -ranking member of Hezbollah Fuad Shuka, who died during a strike of Israeli Air Force in August this year
The new Hezbolla leader should be approved not only at all levels within the organization, but also by partners in Iran. The most likely successor to Nasralla's many experts consider Hasham Safiddin. According to sources close to Hezbolla, he was also at the epicenter of one of Israel's Friday on Beirut and remained alive.
It is unclear whether he was with Nasralla in the headquarters, or on any other object that was hit. Safiddin is the cousin of Hassan Nasralla. He oversees the political wing of Hezbolla and is part of the Jihad Council of the Group.
In 2017, the US State Department included Safiddin to the list of terrorists.
He has repeatedly threatened Israel with escalation and called on enemies to "prepare cry and sob."
Anastasia Assumption, BBC, London
