The article written by journalist Simon Schster for Time, considers the reaction of the Ukrainian authorities to the possible return of Donald Trump to the US presidential seat and its consequences for war with Russia. Despite pessimistic forecasts about the possible reduction of US support and pressure on peace talks, Ukraine is hoped that Trump can change his position in favor of more decisive assistance to Ukraine.
Officials in Kiev have spent months on the thought that Donald Trump's victory can mean for their war with Russia, and many of them have come to the conclusion that his respect for autocrats, such as Vladimir Putin, and his transactional approach to foreign policy can lead to a catastrophe. But not all forecasts are as terrible as you could expect.
"The first eight or ten months, and in fact the whole 2025, will be very difficult," Time said a high -ranking Ukrainian official on conditions of anonymity to discuss internal discussions. Trump is likely to reduce the assistance of Ukraine and push Zelensky to accept a peace agreement, which will be strongly sighted in favor of Russia. Like previous US presidents, Trump may also seek to restart relations with Vladimir Putin at the beginning of his term.
"But over time, he will see that Putin cannot be trusted," says the Ukrainian official. More importantly, Trump adds, in the end, "Putin has no business to Trump and his agenda. It is then that we can start seeing certain advantages from Trump. He does not want Putin to play with him."
Among the Ukrainian political elite, such hopes for the second term Trump have been gaining momentum in recent months. In part, they are the result of the tendency of the Zelensky team to see opportunities and demonstrate confidence, no matter how bad their situation is. But their view of Trump was also formed under the influence of a smoldering disappointment in Kiev by the fact that President Biden responded to the war.
On Sunday, after Biden removed his candidacy from the race, Zelensky praised his leadership in the protection of Ukraine from Russia. "In recent years, many strong decisions have been made that will be remembered as bold steps taken by Biden President in response to difficult times," he said in his statement.
However, over the last two years, Zelensky and his allies have often complained that the US reaction to the Russian invasion was too slow, too indecisive and too distracted by the fear of Russian escalation. The number of those who believe that if Trump comes to power and at some point decides to help Ukraine, the US support will become more decisive.
Among those who announces this forecast are Boris Johnson, a former Prime Minister of Great Britain, who recently met with Trump at the National Congress of the Republican Party. "After talking to Donald Trump this week, I am more convinced that he has strength and courage to correct everything, save Ukraine, bring peace - and stop a detrimental infection of the conflict," Johnson wrote in an essay published on Friday on Daily Mail. "Whatever other Republicans say about Ukraine in the past, I believe that Trump understands reality: the defeat of Ukraine will be a great defeat for America."
Johnson, whom Zelensky considered his closest European ally at the beginning of the invasion in 2022, would not be the only one who would make such Trump arguments. The vast majority of Republicans on the Capitol Hill voted for numerous help packages to Ukraine, last in April, when Congress approved the allocation of an additional $ 61 billion assistance. Many traditional Republicans, including Mitch McConnell, the minority leader in the Senate, were firm in their desire to help Ukraine win in the war.
Last week, choosing his Vice President, Trump sided with his party's more isolationist wing; Senator Jay D. Vance was one of the most fierce opponents of American intervention in Ukraine. But some in Kiev retain the hope that Vance as a Vice President can also change their position over time. "He is like a pendulum," says a high -ranking Ukrainian official. "His position varies on one side to the other," he added, noting that in the past, Vance was one of Trump's most fierce republican critics.
In trying to convince Trump and Vens, Ukrainians also count on the help of their allies in Europe and the US military-industrial complex, which will receive huge profits from the continuation of weapons for Ukraine. "They can explain [Trump] why it is beneficial to many people in America, especially in the Red States," says a high -ranking official. "It creates jobs. It supports the economy. ”
In recent months, when Trump's positions have improved in the election, Zelensky and his team have worked to strengthen ties with their allies in Congress close to Trump. "We cannot stand on someone's direction," says the second high -ranking Ukrainian official who was directly involved in these attempts. "But we must create a greater balance between them."
One of the potential ties with Trump's surroundings for Ukrainians is Mike Pompeo, who worked as a CIA director and Secretary of State during Trump's first presidential term. Pompeo, who stated that he was ready to hold a high position in the government if Trump returns to the White House, at least twice this year met with the head of the headquarters of Zelensky Andriy Yermak, once praising him as a "big friend". Last autumn Pompeo also took a place in Kyivstar, a leading Ukrainian telecommunications company.
However, given the uncertainty of presidential race in the United States, some of the close allies of Zelensky would prefer to avoid direct contact from either side. The risks to the side of the candidate are too high. "No one knows what will happen," says the second Ukrainian official. "We just have to respect this institution and hope for the best."
