Political Viewer Roman Shreyk believes that Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election in November 2024 is quite real. In his post on Telegram, he analyzes the possible consequences of this scenario for Ukraine and international policy.
Trump's plan for “end of war in one day”
Although there is no confidence that Trump has a clear plan, his devotion to autocrats and a critical attitude towards Ukraine's assistance in the Trumppist Congressman's environment suggests that further events can develop on a certain scenario. It is likely that Trump will announce the termination of assistance to Ukraine and promises Putin not to pay attention to the occupation of the Ukrainian territories. According to the political observer, Ukraine will be offered a "whip" and Putin - "carrots".
Three possible scenarios
Srick views three possible scenarios for events:
1. Putin refuses
If Putin does not agree to Trump's proposal, it can provoke the expansion to change the course and continue supplying weapons and other support of Ukraine. Although such a development seems unlikely, it is not excluded.
2. Putin agrees and Ukraine is not
In this case, the war will continue, but without the support of the USA Ukraine will be extremely difficult to fight. This creates a situation where the country is faced with a choice again: to continue the fighting in the bloodstream or to negotiate.
3. Both sides agree
If Putin and the Ukrainian authorities agree to Trump, it can lead to humiliating peace, even to refusing to enter NATO. This decision will seriously affect the moral state of Ukrainian society, causing depression and internal instability.
Realities of assistance to Ukraine
Shrik notes that although there will be no favorable result in Ukraine, the EU, European countries, as well as budgets from G7 ($ 50 billion) and NATO countries (40 billion euros) will continue their assistance. Even if the Nativ budget is crossed out the US part, the amount will remain significant.
He also notes that Trump, being a real "bariga", can reduce everything to the fact that the US will not provide direct help, but will allow the sale of US weapons for money. This means that other countries and funds will be able to buy weapons for Ukraine, such as Germany, which has recently bought three "Himars".
Srick summarizes that in the event of Trump's victory, not many territories will remain Ukraine.
"In general, in the event of Trump's victory, we will only have control over those territories that we can win by the beginning of 2025. and even less if the war continues without US support."
