In Russia, the three -day election process continues, which began on March 15 and will end on March 17. Many observers have already noted that Vladimir Putin has a great chance of winning and will become president for the fifth time. This situation raises the question of the meaning of organizing elections and their impact on the real popularity of Putin.
Putin has actually headed Russia since 2000, when he was appointed by the President Boris Yeltsin. He has won his first elections in March 2000 and has been in the country's leadership since then.
Between 2008 and 2012, he held the post of Prime Minister, but still maintained full control over the political situation. Then he became president again, holding his post for the fourth term.
In 2020, the Russian Constitution was changed, which gave Putin the opportunity to remain in power until 2036. If he remains in office until then, he will exceed the duration of Joseph Stalin and Empress of the eighteenth century, Catherine the Great, who were both in power for over 30 years.
Elections in Russia are known for their low unpredictability, but they are of great importance for legitimizing power and reflecting the opinion of citizens.
At this stage, it is not only important for Vladimir Putin to win, but also to show high turnout and considerable support, especially in a full -scale war, the consequences of which affect Russia and the whole world.
Elections will be a test for government officials in the ability to collect administrative resources and provide a striking result for the current president.
According to the Russian independent information edition "Medusa", the Kremlin hopes for at least 70%, with about 80% of the vote is considered confident for Vladimir Putin. This exceeded his result in 2018, when he received 76.7%.
The BBC study has shown that in order to achieve such results, the authorities actively mobilize the public sector - including central and local authorities and government corporations - and calls them to participate in elections and support the current president.
The elections include about 112.3 million citizens, including those who live in the occupied territories of Ukraine - Crimea and part of Donbass, illegally captured by Russia in 2014, as well as other parts of East and South of Ukraine, which have been occupied since February 2022.
1.9 million Russian citizens living abroad, including 12,000 people in neighboring Kazakhstan, where Russia rented the Baikonur space base.
During his campaign, Vladimir Putin actively participated in numerous events, mainly in meetings with students and workers in different regions of Russia. Despite the fact that he avoided mention the "special military operation" - so Moscow calls an invasion of Ukraine - the war is constantly present in Russian life: international sanctions, limited opportunities to travel, reduce foreign goods and a sense of isolation, especially from Europe and North America. The loss of lives of tens, perhaps, hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers emphasize the severity of the conflict.
Over the past 24 months, hundreds of thousands of Russians, mostly young, educated and secured, have left the country because they did not agree with the war or were afraid of conscription.
Even if the war remains outside the campaign, it is a key element in media narratives and Russians cannot avoid its impact. The high turnout and support of the President will give legitimacy to his further solution, many of which will be related to the invasion.
In addition to Vladimir Putin, three more candidates were registered in the competition: nationalist-nationalist Leonid Slutsky, Candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Mykola Kharitonov and Vladislav Davankov, a businessman from the recently created party "New People", which has a small representation in the State Duma, the Lower House.
All three expressed support for the war of Russia in Ukraine and President Putin, and none of them pose a real threat.
Putin's rivals are either under prison, or were eliminated or fled from the country. Putin's most fierce opponent Alexei Navalny died in a strict regime in February.
When asked by Air Force Correspondent Steve Rosenberg, whether he considers himself a better president than Vladimir Putin, Mykola Kharitonov replied that he was not solved to him, and the voters would "decide everything".
At the same time, Kharitonov calls for a "left turn to the future." It has been under the sanctions of the event since 2022.
A deputy from the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) Leonid Slutsky is associated with charges of sexual harassment. He also organized state visits to the occupied Crimea and has been under international sanctions since 2014.
The new participant in the new party, Vladislav Davankov, co -founder of a cosmetic company, gathered about 5% of the votes in the election of Moscow mayor in 2023. He supports "peace and negotiations" in the war with Ukraine, but voted for the annexation of the Ukrainian territories, which led to its entry under international sanctions.
The anti -war candidate for President Boris Nadezhdin failed to register in the elections, although tens of thousands of Russians stood in line to support him with their signatures.
The voting procedure in these elections lasts three days, from March 15 to March 17, which is an innovation for the presidential election in Russia. This format was tested for the first time when voting for amendments to the Constitution in 2020. Despite the criticism of independent observers, this format is used again, as well as an available remote system of online voting, mainly in areas where protest activity is observed or where the authorities are trying to provide high turnout.
Administrative resources are used to attract electronic votes, in particular, budget officials are strongly convinced of the system testing. Voters are also promised prizes for participating, such as promotional codes and gift certificates to shops and restaurants, which is another way of stimulating participation.
In Russia, there is a vote in the occupied territories of Ukraine, where pressure on local residents is observed for their forced participation.
Voting in the occupied territories of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions began at the beginning of the week. The authorities justify this with safety measures using special teams to organize voting in private homes and apartments. Soldiers with weapons are accompanied by sections and officials who cooperate with the occupying authorities.
Social networks are filled with photos and videos, which can see how people vote on playgrounds, yards and even cars. Ukraine considers these "elections" illegal and called on other countries and international organizations not to recognize their results.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has usually sent its observers to Russia since 1993, but for the last three years it has stopped.
In Russia, there are no independent public opinion surveys, so most Russians receive information from the state media that are biased in favor of Vladimir Putin. However, experts believe that in fact the Russians treat the government more critically than it may seem, but they are afraid to express their disagreement.
Yulia Navalna, Alexei Navalny's widow, called on the Russians to boycott the vote, and foreign countries do not recognize its results. Despite the fact that the latter is unlikely, the first is possible. If the turnout is low, it may indicate a weakening of the presidential support, which in turn will lead to increased state control and the deepening of Russia into an atmosphere of fear and oppression.
