President Recep Erdogan Party has been defeated in the local elections, for the first time in the last 20 years, which may indicate serious political changes. The economic crisis, the devaluation of national currency, populism and departure from Western standards have become the main reasons that caused dissatisfaction among the Turkish population. Istanbul's Charismatic Mayor Imamamoglus received a confident victory and can be a favorite in the upcoming presidential election. However, the government has the opportunity for a revenge if it is able to use the next four years. For Ukraine, the victory of the opposition is a positive signal that indicates the probable movement of Ankara to a more pro -Western position.
The alarming bell for Erdogan in May last year, Recep Erdogan won the presidential election, receiving only 5% more votes than his main competitor - Kilicdaroglu. The victory was convincing, but the opposition candidate also had a serious chance. Even with the support of influential sponsors and media resources, as the results of the local elections have shown, it became obvious that cases were only worse for the Turkish president.
In the political life of Turkey, there were significant changes: the Erdogan Party and Development Party for the first time in twenty years was defeated in the local elections. The Liberal Opposition “Republican People's Party” (RNP) received a championship, having won 37.76% of the vote, while the power party received 35.48% and the right -wing “re -welfare party” - 6% of the vote. Even in almost a year, opposition parties did not unite in a single front.
Not only did the RNP retain its candidates in the positions of mayors Ankara and Istanbul, but also received the posts of mayors in 19 other developed cities. In the capital, the opposition forces received 25% more votes than the party. The loss of positions in the central and eastern part of Anatolia, where conservatives traditionally had support, has become a serious blow to the "Party of Justice and Development".
"Unfortunately, nine months after our victory in May 28, we could not get the desired result in the local elections. We will correct our mistakes and correct the shortcomings," Erdogan said.
Local elections became a means of expressing dissatisfaction with the population by President Erdogan. Proponents of the Party of Power are increasingly voving for opposition politicians, focusing not on party affiliation, but on the candidate's personality. Some disappointed citizens generally refused to participate in the elections: the turnout was 76%, while in the presidential election it was at 87%.
Many voters in Turkey are disappointed by the government for the fact that, despite the constant vote for Erdogan, they do not see a real improvement in their lives. This was reported by the Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science of Sabanchi University in Istanbul, Burke Essen, in communication with the New York Times.
The economic situation is particularly dissatisfied: rapid inflation increases up to 70%, high discount rate at 50% and devaluation of the Turkish lyre. Many people consider Erdogan President personally responsible for this crisis. Despite the traditional methods of combating inflation, the President tried to reduce the discount rate for a long time by influencing the central bank for a long time. However, when this approach was not effective, it was forced to make a sharp turn. Unfortunately, this did not help to correct the situation with inflation, and now Erdogan pays the price for his populism policies.
"In 2019, the Justice and Development Party lost control of many major cities due to the consequences of the 2018 crisis, which was particularly felt in metropolitan areas. Now the threat of poverty and unemployment has become relevant throughout the country," said economist from Istanbul, Arda Tunja.
In developed industrial cities where the opposition has gained the greatest support, voters are also concerned about the distance from the West and the strengthening of authoritarianism. The risks of religion penetration into the state are growing, and the Turks do not want to wake up in a country that lives under the laws of Sharia.
"Today, our voters have made a very important decision. Today they decided to set a new policy in Turkey. They decided to change the 22-year-old picture of Turkey and open the door to a new political climate in our country," said ChP Ozhur Ozam.
It was also influenced by the liberal politicians of Erdogan of trying to return to the authoritarian clerical state, the right attacked him for his lack of support for Palestinians in gas and the inadmissibility of ratifying the NATO joint venture agreement with Sweden: Stockholm residents could not be forgiven.
Who will become the future president? The next nationwide elections will take place in four years, but the authorities and the opposition have already started training. Erdogan, who is serving the last term allowed by the Constitution, stated that the local elections would become the last in his political career and he would transfer power to one -party. It is said that the poor health of the Turkish president is one of the reasons for this decision.
The main candidate of the power PSR is probably his son -in -law, Baykar Selchuk, co -owner of Baykar. He is young, active, well known in Turkey and the world and has a positive image. However, its disadvantages can be noted the distance from political life. It is also not clear how the idea of transferring power in modern Turkey will be perceived. In addition, the Bayrakar team will have to work hard to cope with Erdogan's negative heritage.
Instead, the 53-year-old Istanbul mayor Mammamoglu, a member of the opposition Republican People's Party (RNP), has every chance of becoming a favorite of the upcoming presidential election. A charismatic policy gained a giant 50.92%, which is 10% more than his competitor from a pro -government party, so he maintains his position for this cadence. It is Istanbul who is considered the main field of battle between the authorities and the opposition. In 2023, Mammalla had already had a chance to become a central candidate for the opposition, but then the Kilichdaroglu, who then struggled with Erdogan, gave way. Now he is unlikely to have competitors inside the party.
“Celebrating our victory, we send a loud message to the world: the end of the decline of democracy has come. Istanbul is a beacon of hope, a testament to the stability of democratic values before the growth of authoritarianism, ”Istanbul may wrote on Twitter.
However, it may be too early to write off Erdogan's accounts. He can amend the Constitution to secure the next term. The Turkish President is warned by the loss of power as it runs the risk of being behind bars. If there is no decent candidate, he can bet on small villages and a towns where conservative moods are strong enough. But the charismatic immamogl will become a powerful opponent.
What changes are expected to Turkey? Turkey's left -centric opposition is currently composed of a RNP and a number of other parties, and often they are not very good. A large -scale victory for many of them was a surprise. However, the results of the elections will give a new impetus to the political life of the country, strengthening the "morale".
“It can breathe new life into Turkish democracy and bring fresh views on solving economic problems, cities planning and public services. But this is a big “if”. Success will depend on the opposition's ability to unite as a single front and present a vision of future Turkey, which will resonate in all areas, ”said Senior Advisor to Albright Stonebridge Group, Hakan Akbas, CNBC.
Instead, four years are enough time to maneuver. Erdogan has already declared his intention to take into account the mood of the electorate and "remedy the situation". Although it will be harder to make after the defeat in the municipal elections, it has the opportunity to gain a revenge, guaranteeing the advantage of your successor or yourself. To do this, you need to change the constitution, which has long been discussed.
"It would be naive and mistaken to believe that this failure marks the beginning of the end for Erdogan," explained Wolfango Piccoli, co -president of the Teneo Intelligence Consulting Company.
However, before Erdogan's honor, for 20 years of his reign, he never crossed the border, remained a nationwide elected president, not a dictator. The elections have never been recognized as undemocratic.
What do elections in Turkey mean for Ukraine? Opposition victory is a signal that will make Erdogan clearly determine his priorities. The Turkish President is unlikely to completely abandon the favorable policy of Lavairing between Russia, China and the West, but will probably pursue a stiffer policy on sanction pressure. On May 9, Erdogan's meeting with Joe Biden will be planned and this will be the first such visit to the entire cadence of the US President - Turkey accused the United States of involvement in attempting a military coup.
Washington should become a platform for improving the relationship that has been released after the Turkish Parliament's ratification Treaty on NATO Sweden and the White House permission for the purchase of the F-16 for Turkey Air Force. If the rapprochement is successful, Ankara will cease to be a hub for dual -use products and this can be a tangible blow to Putin. In addition, Bloomberg reports that the US and Turkey are negotiating on joint ammunition production. If they are successful, it will increase the production of shells for Ukraine three times. And Turkish companies will access investment and technology. However, such arrangements will accurately worsen relations with the Russian Federation.
President Erdogan was a painful defeat. He is going to win the lost positions, but for this he will have to invent a new strategy different from the one he still followed. What it will become clear in the near future.
