US President Joe Biden's administration has succeeded in redirecting NATO to a joint response to Russia's unprovoked invasion, described as a prime example of "America's strategic DNA." However, subsequent events, in particular the long and careful process of providing military aid to Ukraine, have raised some doubts, notes Andrew Michta, a senior fellow and director of the Scowcroft Strategic Initiative at the Atlantic Council of the United States.
The main decisive issue was the lack of a clear vision of victory on the part of the US and its allies. Instead of agreeing on a strategy, it was felt that "either Ukraine itself determines the final outcome, not allowing Putin to win, or Ukraine is not allowed to lose." This ambiguous approach can lead to different results, the author emphasizes, comparing it to the proverb "if you don't know where you are going, any road will lead you there."
Recent events in Washington, Berlin and Paris aimed at discussing a common strategy for Ukraine have turned into standard "conflict freezes", calling the sanctions regime against Russia "too porous".
The most destructive factor for the course of the full-scale war was NATO's inability to offer a clear path for Ukraine's membership at the Vilnius summit. The idea that Ukraine was not ready to join NATO proved encouraging for Putin and prolonged the conflict.
Now it is urgent to take real steps, because "if the USA does not change its policy, Ukraine will lose." The author emphasizes that the hypothetical victory of Russia will significantly damage the authority of the West, hiding the failures in Afghanistan.
Strategic courage is needed to rethink the European security architecture in order to stabilize the eastern flank and contain Russia. The author emphasizes that these goals are unattainable without Ukraine's accession to NATO, review of US armed forces in Europe, creation of permanent military bases in Poland and Romania, and pressure on Western European allies to rearm.
Although time is short, the author believes it is possible to complete the political work on these solutions and present them at the 75th anniversary NATO summit in Washington this summer.
To avoid a US defeat in Ukraine, it is important to put aside differences and agree on the measures necessary for a strategic victory for Kyiv, including the provision of weapons and ammunition to break through Russian defenses. US diplomacy should make every effort to gain NATO support for Ukraine's full membership.
In addition, the author calls on European countries to develop their armies and carry out powerful rearmament. The reluctance of some of Europe's richest countries to spend on defense is unjustifiable.
On the contrary, the US must rebuild its defense industrial base, increase the size of the military and increase defense spending to meet today's challenges. There is a need for an American national security strategy that takes into account the geostrategic interests of the United States and its allies in conditions of long-term systemic instability in the world.
