"The Second Cold War develops faster than the first. Fortunately, we are not in the third world," - the powerful terminology of historian and writer Nill Ferguson in the article for Bloomberg.
The author compares the Russian-Ukrainian war and the situation in Taiwan with the Korean war of 1950-1953 and the Cuban rocket crisis, respectively.
However, in his opinion, this time the rocket crisis managed to "slip" this time and now the period of discharge has come.
"After a summit in Woodside in November 2023, the Chinese seem to sincerely want to avoid clashes and enter into a serious, though icy dialogue with American colleagues," he said.
The greatest differences between the Cold Wars by Ferguson:
✔️ China is a much larger economic rival than the Soviet Union;
✔️ The event is economically more economically linked to China;
✔️ The event is now much weaker in terms of production capacity;
✔️ The steady growth of the US government debt to GDP by 2054 will generally hamper future administrations, as the constantly increasing share of revenues will go to debt service. Any large state that spends more on debt than defense will not remain long;
✔️ Western alliances may be weaker than during the First Cold War. In Europe, Germany refers to the US leadership in the Atlantic Alliance. The US may think that India is an Asian ally, but "I doubt that the prime minister will take the phone if Washington will call for help in the Taiwanese crisis."
"Therefore, we should not be too self -confident in the result of the Second Cold War. Taiwanese crisis, if China arranges it this year, is being poorly prepared.
The only resemblance between the Cold Wars, in his opinion, is that Washington has a two -party consensus - the communist superpower poses a serious threat.
