Iran's last attack on Israel increases the likelihood of exacerbation of the conflict in the Middle East, which can have serious consequences. Recent events have been commented as trends to changes in relationships in the Middle East for many years. In particular, cooperation between Israel and several Sunni countries, such as Bahrain, united Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, is growing. In addition, Israel has stable relations with Egypt and Jordan, but recent events, such as knocking down Iranian drones, and permission to use their airspace, are asked the stability of these connections.
This rapprochement between countries is considered to be a significant victory for Israeli diplomacy when sworn enemies are on the way to the formation of the Alliance. Negotiation participants believe that even Indonesia, the most densely populated Muslim country in the world, can normalize their relations with Israel as part of their application for joining OECD.
At the same time, Iran seeks to become a major regional force capable of imposing its will to other countries, and appeals to all possible measures to break the alliance of hostile countries. Ayatol Hamenei and its mode respond to a number of signals from the west and conclude that it is time to increase the pressure.
First, after the election of Barack Obama President, it became obvious that the West prefers China and the Pacific, not the Middle East. The attempt to remove Saddam Hussein has led to an increase in Iran's impact in Iraq, and surrendering positions in Afghanistan only increased the belief that neither America nor Europe has interest in the region.
In addition, the event did not find an effective response to Iran's policy aimed at avoiding international sanctions. Oil production in Iran has doubled over the past five years, and the shadow fleet of oil tankers has been sending exports mainly to China.
In addition, the event's reaction to Iran's nuclear ambitions added Tehran motivation. The Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) between Iran, five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany - was only a temporary decision. Obama understood that Iran intended to receive nuclear weapons and allowed him to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, with restrictions on nuclear units in exchange for the removal of international sanctions. When Trump brought America from Jcpoa, Europeans remained one on one with this task, and Ayatol Hamenei took the initiative.
Iran watched the West and came to the conclusion that his enemies were too disconnected for effective action. Last year, Tehran increased the production of highly enriched uranium to 60% of purity, which is far exceeding the maximum 3.67% set in JCPOA and is much higher as necessary for civilian energy, approaching the level required for nuclear weapons. The reaction of the world to this remained uncertain and actually had no consequences for Tehran.
On April 14, Iran attacked Israel with rockets and Drone-Kamikadze. According to the Israeli Defense Army, more than 185 drones were launched, more than 36 winged and 110 ballistic missiles. At the same time, almost 99% of them were intercepted.
It is worth noting that Iran's blowing a blow to Iran testifies to his military homelessness. Only one of the about three hundred drones and rockets released by Iranians in Israel managed to achieve their goal. Most of them were destroyed long before the Israeli territory was reached.
