Moscow's plans in the near future include terrorist acts in Belarus with the subsequent accusation of this Belarusian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine. Such steps are aimed at several goals, including increased effect after the terrorist attack in the Moscow region and the creation of "grounds" for Ukraine's accusations in terrorism.
According to insides obtained from one of the European special services, Moscow plans to organize terrorist acts in the territory of Belarus in order to accuse the regiment of the Kalinovsky, Anti -Lukashenko Unit, which is fighting on the side of Ukraine. Such a course will allow the Kremlin to strengthen the resonance after the tragedy in City City Holi and to create another reason for Ukraine's accusations.
The involvement of Belarusian troops in conflict with Ukraine is also the purpose of the Kremlin, which hopes to distract the Ukrainian forces from the south and east of the country. This will create an opportunity for the Russian offensive on Kharkiv and Kyiv. In this context, Lukashenko's statement about Belarus's readiness for war, training assembly and strengthening military equipment may also be part of Moscow's strategy.
The analysis of these actions shows that the Kremlin uses Belarus as a tool to achieve its goals in conflict with Ukraine. Such steps can create additional territorial conflicts and exacerbate the situation in the region, which potentially threaten stability and security in Europe.
Against the backdrop of the absence of visible prospects for Russia's further promotion to the Ukrainian fields of battles and the transition to the trench war, RLI analysts believe that the scenario of Lukashenko's overthrow is becoming more likely. Over the past two years, they have indicated factors that indicate Russia's readiness to absorb Belarus and establish a puppet regime. This will open up Putin's new opportunities, in particular, the total call of Belarusian men, which was warned in May last year.
Lukashenko's recent statements made their own script with his overthrow more real. Its rhetoric is contrary to the Kremlin's narratives, in particular, his statements that terrorists from Krocus tried to escape to Belarus, not to Ukraine, as Putin claimed.
RLI does not rule out that planned attacks can also be directed to the political leadership of Belarus. This, according to Moscow's calculations, will make it easier for Minsk to join the war against Ukraine.
Recently, self -proclaimed President Lukashenko stated that Belarus is preparing for war, but "for peace." He stressed that the preparation of the relevant units is being prepared, and various types of weapons and equipment are supplied to the Armed Forces.
